Weekly house view | Tariffs are dead, long live the new tariffs
The week in review
Last week saw an increase in market uncertainties, driven by the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) ruling against many of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs. The court decided that Trump’s use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was an illegal overreach of his emergency powers but did not address whether companies are eligible to be refunded for tariff payments already made. Tariffs collected under the IEEPA amount to some USD 134 bn, or 0.4% of GDP. Corporate America is lining up for refunds.
The SCOTUS ruling cheered stock markets on Friday and helped the S&P 5001 record a gain of 1.1% (in USD) for the week. However, Trump responded to the ruling with an initial 10% levy on imports, which he raised to 15% the day after, using the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to set import restrictions for up to 150 days.
Rising tensions over Iran also stoked uncertainties. Trump, who has amassed a vast military force in the Middle East, gave Iran 15 days to reach a deal with the US or “bad things will happen”. Iran held naval exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices rose 6% on the week. Also rattling investors, US private credit group Blue Owl said it will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail fund.
Quote of the week
“Foreign countries that have been ripping us off for years are ecstatic; they’re so happy. They’re dancing in the streets, but they won’t be dancing for long,” Trump said after the Supreme Court’s decision.
Key data
US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter, well short of expectations, as a federal shutdown hit government spending. The US trade deficit widened in December to USD 70.3 bn. The shortfall meant a full-year deficit of USD 901.5 bn, still one of the largest in data back to 1960.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for February 2026 showed that optimism for the labour market is building, with the index for future employment expectations climbing to its highest level since November 2024.
Japan’s real GDP grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, or 0.2% on an annualised basis, below the consensus forecast.
