Macroeconomic insights
Macroeconomic trends shape the foundations of financial markets. From growth cycles and inflation to fiscal and monetary policy, these forces influence investment performance and long-term strategy.
Understanding macroeconomics
Our experts provide in-depth perspectives on the key drivers of the global economy, analysing shifts in interest rates, trade balances and capital flows to help investors navigate an evolving landscape with clarity and foresight.
Macroeconomics · 23 Sept 2026
From monetary independence to fiscal dominance?
In previous “Horizon” publications, we have highlighted several structural trends shaping economies, including demographics, deglobalisation, decarbonisation, debt and digitalisation. Successive crises – such as the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the trade war and the recent Middle East conflict – have exacerbated these trends.
Macroeconomics · 23 Sept 2026
The great scramble for resources
Today’s increasingly fragmented world is driving a dash to secure resource sovereignty. Across the globe, governments are prioritising energy security and access to key commodities in the face of conflicts, trade barriers and climate change.
Macroeconomics · 21 Sept 2026
Weekly house view | Xi-Trump, round two
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 21 Sept 2026
Stablecoins versus the digital euro
The rapid evolution of digital finance has brought stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to the forefront of global economic discussions. Stablecoins, which are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value, have experienced explosive growth. This is prompting new regulatory frameworks and raising important questions about their impact on financial stability, monetary policy and the international monetary system. At the same time, central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty and adapt to changing payment landscapes.
Macroeconomics · 15 Sept 2026
The 2020s in historical perspective
Sir Niall Ferguson has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law,” highlights how US fiscal profligacy threatens the durability of American power just as a second Cold War is emerging between the US and China.
Macroeconomics · 14 Sept 2026
Weekly house view | Bonds not Ha-PPI
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Sept 2026
Re-equitisation: investing in a high issuance era
For much of the past two decades, equity investors have enjoyed a powerful tailwind: the phenomenon of “de-equitisation.” During this period, companies have bought back more shares than they issued, which has reduced the volume of listed equities and supported stock prices. That era appears to be ending.
Macroeconomics · 08 Sept 2026
Horizon 2026 – The race for resource sovereignty
A new era is upon us. The post-war, rules-based period of multilateralism has given way to multipolar rivalry and, by extension, heightened geopolitical tensions in a more uncertain world. At the core of this multipolar rivalry is a competition for supremacy between the US and China. And at the heart of their rivalry is a race for technological leadership – particularly in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The superpowers’ quest for digital dominance extends to a competition for the resources needed to power the AI economy. Their fragile trade truce is indicative of a highly charged environment, in which “resource sovereignty” is the defining imperative.
Macroeconomics · 07 Sept 2026
Weekly house view | Fed waiting for CPI to decide
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 07 Sept 2026
Monthly house view | September 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 02 Sept 2026
Barometer: Robust earnings growth to push equities higher
With corporate profit growth at remarkably healthy levels, we expect the stock market to add to its strong gains over the coming months.
Macroeconomics · 31 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Biggest oil deal in history
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 24 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | The “Bessent put”
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 17 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | All eyes on Fed and retailers
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 10 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Inflation anticipation
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 05 Aug 2026
Barometer: Staying the course on equities
Equity markets have further to run thanks to strong earnings, resilient economic growth and continued investment in AI.
Macroeconomics · 04 Aug 2026
Monthly house view | August 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 03 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Situational (mis) awareness
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 27 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | AI capex mistrust
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 20 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | Chip dip
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Jul 2026
Will China rule Artificial Intelligence like it does Electric Vehicles?
The US’s longstanding leadership in technological innovation is being challenged. Not only is China already at the vanguard in everything to do with electrification and clean energy, it’s also making giant strides in catching up with the US in the hottest field in tech right now: AI. Who prevails in the race for AI supremacy will shape the world for decades to come.
Macroeconomics · 13 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | Hormuz, open or closed?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 10 Jul 2026
Secular Outlook 2026: Our 10-year investment outlook
Understand the key trends shaping returns across equities, fixed income, currencies and alternatives.
Macroeconomics · 07 Jul 2026
A new world (dis)order
This year, the relentless flow of financial news and geopolitical events can feel overwhelming. In the first quarter of 2026, geopolitical developments related to Venezuela, Greenland and Iran contributed to heightened market volatility. During the same period, artificial intelligence tools showed their potential to disrupt established business models.
Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | German reform package agreed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026
Monthly house view | July 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 02 Jul 2026
Barometer: Equity rally to roll on as stagflation risks recede
With inflationary pressures likely to abate as the US and Iran make progress towards a peace agreement that would stabilise oil markets, equities should build on their recent gains.
Macroeconomics · 29 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Happy 250th Anniversary
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 22 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Regime change at the Fed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 15 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | A deal… to sign a deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jun 2026
Monthly house view | June 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Jobs surprise spooks markets
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Jun 2026
Barometer: In earnings we trust
Corporate profits are growing at a remarkable pace across the world. That is sure to sustain the equity rally over the medium run.
Macroeconomics · 01 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Waiting for a deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 May 2026
Under new management: what bond investors should know about a Warsh-led Fed
Kevin Warsh is set to be confirmed as the new chairman of the US Federal Reserve. In this Q&A, Mickael Benhaim, head of fixed income investment strategy and solutions at Pictet Asset Management, explains what investors should expect from a Fed chief that has been publicly critical of how the US central bank conducts monetary policy.
Macroeconomics · 26 May 2026
Weekly house view | SpaceX-traterrestrial ambitions
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 18 May 2026
Weekly house view | A Warsh welcome!
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 11 May 2026
Weekly house view | Trump-Xi to meet again
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 06 May 2026
Barometer: Prospects for US, emerging market stocks remain strong
Even though there is no end in sight to the Iran conflict, the outlook for both emerging market and US equities remains positive; we upgrade both to overweight.
Macroeconomics · 04 May 2026
Weekly house view | No war, no peace, no oil
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 04 May 2026
Monthly house view | May 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 27 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | In limbo
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 20 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | No deal yet
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 13 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | No deal, Hormuz closed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 07 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | To the moon and back
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Apr 2026
Monthly house view | March 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 31 Mar 2026
Barometer: Iran conflict demands earnest reassessment of active positions
Conflicting signals on how the war in Iran might come to an end have caused violent swings in asset prices. Against this backdrop, we have chosen to reduce allocations to emerging markets and cyclical sectors.
Macroeconomics · 30 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | The clock is ticking
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 23 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | Central banks enter the war
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | It takes two to TACO
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | From wildcard to reality
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 03 Mar 2026
Barometer: Stock market rotation won’t derail rally
Concerns over the economic effects of AI have led to changes in the patterns of returns across stock markets worldwide. But we see no reason for the equity rally to falter over the near term.
Macroeconomics · 02 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | Operation Epic Fury launched
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 23 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | Tariffs are dead, long live the new tariffs
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 23 Feb 2026
Monthly house view | March 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 16 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | From AI-phoria to AI-phobia?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | Tech tantrum
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | And the winner is… Kevin Warsh
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | Green deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 19 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | A spirit of dialogue at Davos
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 12 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | Earnings to the fore
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jan 2026
Barometer: Stocks set for further gains as economic conditions remain benign
We remain overweight stocks, and expect emerging market equities to build on their gains thanks to additional rate cuts and healthy economic growth
Macroeconomics · 05 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | Donroe Doctrine
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 15 Dec 2025
Weekly house view | AI trade in trouble
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Dec 2025
In focus: Sir Niall Ferguson – Cold War II
Sir Niall Ferguson, Managing Director, Greenmantle, has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law” highlights how US fiscal mismanagement could threaten the durability of American power just as a second cold war is emerging between the US and China.
Macroeconomics · 08 Dec 2025
Weekly house view | Hawkish cut
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 03 Dec 2025
Pictet Asset Management’s Annual Outlook for 2026
Global equities should build on their gains next year, with emerging market stocks delivering among the best returns. In fixed income and currency markets, government bond yields could edge higher over 2026 while the US dollar is set to depreciate further.
Macroeconomics · 01 Dec 2025
Weekly house view | Holiday retail cheer
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 Nov 2025
Time to get real
Watch the video to see why real assets matter in today’s changing market.
Macroeconomics · 24 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Thanksgiving ultimatum
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 17 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Nvidia to the rescue?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 10 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Markets jumpy on confusing data
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 06 Nov 2025
Global trade capital flows and the US dollar
The US has long been a dominant force in the global economy, bolstered by its status as the world’s largest economy and the dollar’s role as the primary reserve currency. However, this foundation is coming under growing pressure, as the rapid expansion of its twin-deficits is causing concern among market participants.
Macroeconomics · 05 Nov 2025
Barometer: Rally appears set to continue into year end
We retain our overweight stance on equities as corporate earnings and economic conditions suggest the rally will extend into year end.
Macroeconomics · 03 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Waiting for the Supreme Court
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 27 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Chickening out?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 21 Oct 2025
Monthly house view | October 2025
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 20 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Cockroaches in the market
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Oct 2025
The great digital decoupling
When Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek launched a large language model in January with a similar performance to that of US rival OpenAI at a fraction of the cost and computing power, it did not just set the stage for a battle between the US and China for AI supremacy.
Macroeconomics · 13 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Trump China tariff threat 2.0
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Oct 2025
US fiscal situation: hardly sustainable
Last year, we identified a deteriorating fiscal backdrop in the US and argued that the unique status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the depth of the US capital markets provide exceptional fiscal leeway. We also said US debt and deficit reduction were likely to remain politically challenging.
Macroeconomics · 06 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Japan heading for first female PM
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 03 Oct 2025
Barometer: Moving overweight equities as economy remains resilient
With the global economy proving more resilient than expected, we upgrade equities to overweight.
Macroeconomics · 29 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | US government shutdown looms
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 22 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Don’t fight the fed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Sept 2025
Monthly house view | September 2025
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 15 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Fed: time to cut
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Sept 2025
Horizon 2025 - Turning inward
The world has changed. The end of “Pax Americana”, marked by recent US policy shifts, has closed the era of American-led global stability. Nations are now turning inward.
Macroeconomics · 08 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Ishiba out, Bayrou next?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 03 Sept 2025
Barometer: Emerging markets more attractive than expensive US
While equity markets are buoyant worldwide, emerging markets stocks and bonds are the only assets that merit an 'overweight' allocation.
Macroeconomics · 01 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Tariffs hiccup
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 25 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | The Fed put is back on
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 18 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | Waiting for Powell
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 11 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | Trump, Putin finally meet
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 05 Aug 2025
Barometer: Balancing the risks
Continued uncertainty over tariffs, a mixed economic backdrop and stretched valuations warrant a neutral stance across global equities, bonds and cash.
Macroeconomics · 04 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | We have a deal
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 28 Jul 2025
Weekly house view | We have a deal
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 21 Jul 2025
Weekly house view | Defiant in the defeat
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 17 Jul 2025
Embracing endowment-style investing
Endowment-style investing is about a disciplined, long-term approach to creating well-diversified portfolios built on solid strategic asset allocation.
Macroeconomics · 14 Jul 2025
Weekly house view | To taco or not to taco?
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
From macroeconomic data to market insights
Our insights focus on identifying the underlying forces behind global growth, inflation trends and policy responses, allowing for a clearer assessment of risks and opportunities across regions and sectors.
Actionable macroeconomic analysis
Reliable macroeconomic data underpin every informed investment decision. By analysing key indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, employment trends and central bank policies, our analysts develop a coherent view of the global economy. These insights go beyond observation – they transform complex macroeconomic developments into actionable guidance. By assessing the impact of policy shifts, geopolitical tensions and demographic changes on asset prices and investor behaviour, we provide a forward-looking perspective designed to support resilient and responsible investment strategies.
Our macroeconomics outlook revisits long-term economic and asset class forecasts and delves into some of the key topics we expect to drive markets over the coming years.
In 2026, geopolitical tensions continue to rise, the USA and China compete for dominance and countries are shifting towards dtrategic autonomy. Until now, the economy was powered by fossil fuels. The economy of the future will be powered by energy and materials. Emerging economies are gaining importance, supplying what the world needs most, AI infrastructure and raw materials. But scarcity and other secular drivers are driving up inflation, from 2% to ~3% creating demand for capital. Central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty as landscape is changing. In this race for resource sovereignty, investors should consider a refreshed approach.
