Latest insights on macroeconomics

Macroeconomics · 28 Sep 2026

Weekly house view | Markets are a-Mused

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 25 Sep 2026

Energy independence and access to commodities in the era of electrification

Energy independence and secure access to commodities have become central to economic policy in the 2020s, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility and the global climate transition.

Macroeconomics · 23 Sep 2026

From monetary independence to fiscal dominance?

In previous “Horizon” publications, we have highlighted several structural trends shaping economies, including demographics, deglobalisation, decarbonisation, debt and digitalisation. Successive crises – such as the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the trade war and the recent Middle East conflict – have exacerbated these trends.

Macroeconomics · 23 Sep 2026

The great scramble for resources

Today’s increasingly fragmented world is driving a dash to secure resource sovereignty. Across the globe, governments are prioritising energy security and access to key commodities in the face of conflicts, trade barriers and climate change.

Macroeconomics · 21 Sep 2026

Weekly house view | Xi-Trump, round two

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 21 Sep 2026

Stablecoins versus the digital euro

The rapid evolution of digital finance has brought stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to the forefront of global economic discussions. Stablecoins, which are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value, have experienced explosive growth. This is prompting new regulatory frameworks and raising important questions about their impact on financial stability, monetary policy and the international monetary system. At the same time, central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty and adapt to changing payment landscapes.

Macroeconomics · 15 Sep 2026

The 2020s in historical perspective

Sir Niall Ferguson has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law,” highlights how US fiscal profligacy threatens the durability of American power just as a second Cold War is emerging between the US and China.

Macroeconomics · 14 Sep 2026

Weekly house view | Bonds not Ha-PPI

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 09 Sep 2026

Re-equitisation: investing in a high issuance era

For much of the past two decades, equity investors have enjoyed a powerful tailwind: the phenomenon of “de-equitisation.” During this period, companies have bought back more shares than they issued, which has reduced the volume of listed equities and supported stock prices. That era appears to be ending.

Macroeconomics · 08 Sep 2026

Horizon 2026 – The race for resource sovereignty

A new era is upon us. The post-war, rules-based period of multilateralism has given way to multipolar rivalry and, by extension, heightened geopolitical tensions in a more uncertain world. At the core of this multipolar rivalry is a competition for supremacy between the US and China. And at the heart of their rivalry is a race for technological leadership – particularly in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The superpowers’ quest for digital dominance extends to a competition for the resources needed to power the AI economy. Their fragile trade truce is indicative of a highly charged environment, in which “resource sovereignty” is the defining imperative.

Macroeconomics · 07 Sep 2026

Monthly house view | September 2026

Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.

Macroeconomics · 07 Sep 2026

Weekly house view | Fed waiting for CPI to decide

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 02 Sep 2026

Barometer: Robust earnings growth to push equities higher

With corporate profit growth at remarkably healthy levels, we expect the stock market to add to its strong gains over the coming months.

Macroeconomics · 31 Aug 2026

Weekly house view | Biggest oil deal in history

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 24 Aug 2026

Weekly house view | The “Bessent put”

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 17 Aug 2026

Weekly house view | All eyes on Fed and retailers

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 10 Aug 2026

Weekly house view | Inflation anticipation

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 05 Aug 2026

Barometer: Staying the course on equities

Equity markets have further to run thanks to strong earnings, resilient economic growth and continued investment in AI.

Macroeconomics · 04 Aug 2026

Monthly house view | August 2026

Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.

Macroeconomics · 03 Aug 2026

Weekly house view | Situational (mis) awareness

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 27 Jul 2026

Weekly house view | AI capex mistrust

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 20 Jul 2026

Weekly house view | Chip dip

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 16 Jul 2026

Will China rule Artificial Intelligence like it does Electric Vehicles?

The US’s longstanding leadership in technological innovation is being challenged. Not only is China already at the vanguard in everything to do with electrification and clean energy, it’s also making giant strides in catching up with the US in the hottest field in tech right now: AI. Who prevails in the race for AI supremacy will shape the world for decades to come.

Macroeconomics · 13 Jul 2026

Weekly house view | Hormuz, open or closed?

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 10 Jul 2026

Secular Outlook 2026: Our 10-year investment outlook

Understand the key trends shaping returns across equities, fixed income, currencies and alternatives.

Macroeconomics · 07 Jul 2026

A new world (dis)order

This year, the relentless flow of financial news and geopolitical events can feel overwhelming. In the first quarter of 2026, geopolitical developments related to Venezuela, Greenland and Iran contributed to heightened market volatility. During the same period, artificial intelligence tools showed their potential to disrupt established business models.

Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026

Weekly house view | German reform package agreed

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026

Monthly house view | July 2026

Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.

Macroeconomics · 02 Jul 2026

Barometer: Equity rally to roll on as stagflation risks recede

With inflationary pressures likely to abate as the US and Iran make progress towards a peace agreement that would stabilise oil markets, equities should build on their recent gains.

Macroeconomics · 29 Jun 2026

Weekly house view | Happy 250th Anniversary

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 22 Jun 2026

Weekly house view | Regime change at the Fed

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 15 Jun 2026

Weekly house view | A deal… to sign a deal

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

Macroeconomics · 02 Jun 2026

Barometer: In earnings we trust

Corporate profits are growing at a remarkable pace across the world. That is sure to sustain the equity rally over the medium run.

Macroeconomics · 26 May 2026

Under new management: what bond investors should know about a Warsh-led Fed

Kevin Warsh is set to be confirmed as the new chairman of the US Federal Reserve. In this Q&A, Mickael Benhaim, head of fixed income investment strategy and solutions at Pictet Asset Management, explains what investors should expect from a Fed chief that has been publicly critical of how the US central bank conducts monetary policy.

Macroeconomics · 06 May 2026

Barometer: Prospects for US, emerging market stocks remain strong

Even though there is no end in sight to the Iran conflict, the outlook for both emerging market and US equities remains positive; we upgrade both to overweight.

Macroeconomics · 31 Mar 2026

Barometer: Iran conflict demands earnest reassessment of active positions

Conflicting signals on how the war in Iran might come to an end have caused violent swings in asset prices. Against this backdrop, we have chosen to reduce allocations to emerging markets and cyclical sectors.

Macroeconomics · 03 Mar 2026

Barometer: Stock market rotation won’t derail rally

Concerns over the economic effects of AI have led to changes in the patterns of returns across stock markets worldwide. But we see no reason for the equity rally to falter over the near term.

Macroeconomics · 08 Jan 2026

Barometer: Stocks set for further gains as economic conditions remain benign

We remain overweight stocks, and expect emerging market equities to build on their gains thanks to additional rate cuts and healthy economic growth

Macroeconomics · 08 Dec 2025

In focus: Sir Niall Ferguson – Cold War II

Sir Niall Ferguson, Managing Director, Greenmantle, has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law” highlights how US fiscal mismanagement could threaten the durability of American power just as a second cold war is emerging between the US and China.

Macroeconomics · 03 Dec 2025

Pictet Asset Management’s Annual Outlook for 2026

Global equities should build on their gains next year, with emerging market stocks delivering among the best returns. In fixed income and currency markets, government bond yields could edge higher over 2026 while the US dollar is set to depreciate further.

Macroeconomics · 26 Nov 2025

Time to get real

Watch the video to see why real assets matter in today’s changing market.

Macroeconomics · 06 Nov 2025

Global trade capital flows and the US dollar

The US has long been a dominant force in the global economy, bolstered by its status as the world’s largest economy and the dollar’s role as the primary reserve currency. However, this foundation is coming under growing pressure, as the rapid expansion of its twin-deficits is causing concern among market participants.

Macroeconomics · 05 Nov 2025

Barometer: Rally appears set to continue into year end

We retain our overweight stance on equities as corporate earnings and economic conditions suggest the rally will extend into year end.

Macroeconomics · 16 Oct 2025

The great digital decoupling

When Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek launched a large language model in January with a similar performance to that of US rival OpenAI at a fraction of the cost and computing power, it did not just set the stage for a battle between the US and China for AI supremacy.

Macroeconomics · 03 Oct 2025

Barometer: Moving overweight equities as economy remains resilient

With the global economy proving more resilient than expected, we upgrade equities to overweight.

Macroeconomics · 03 Sep 2025

Barometer: Emerging markets more attractive than expensive US

While equity markets are buoyant worldwide, emerging markets stocks and bonds are the only assets that merit an 'overweight' allocation.

Macroeconomics · 05 Aug 2025

Barometer: Balancing the risks

Continued uncertainty over tariffs, a mixed economic backdrop and stretched valuations warrant a neutral stance across global equities, bonds and cash.

Macroeconomics · 17 Jul 2025

Embracing endowment-style investing

Endowment-style investing is about a disciplined, long-term approach to creating well-diversified portfolios built on solid strategic asset allocation.

Macroeconomics · 04 Jul 2025

Barometer: Equities enter slightly calmer waters

We upgrade equities to neutral from underweight as falling interest rates and improving economic conditions in emerging markets offset uncertainty over US tariff policies.

Macroeconomics · 27 Jun 2025

Secular Outlook 2025: Five-year return forecasts for equities, bonds, currencies and alternatives

We anticipate that returns across major asset classes will converge over the next five years. As a long-term investor, this presents you with an opportunity to reassess and refine your strategic asset allocation. Our experts share detailed forecasts and actionable recommendations.

Macroeconomics · 02 Jun 2025

Barometer: Cautious on equities as US flip-flops on tariffs

We remain underweight most developed market stocks as US tariff policy is still unclear but are more enthusiastic about emerging market assets.

Macroeconomics · 22 May 2025

Tilting away from the US

US policy is pushing investors to look beyond the US, a reallocation that is set to include private assets.

Macroeconomics · 22 May 2025

The rise of BRICS+ and what it means for emerging market stocks

A new world economic order with BRICS+ nations at its core could give rise to a wealth of investment opportunities within emerging market equities.

Macroeconomics · 22 May 2025

BRICS+, US isolationism and the implications for the dollar

Washington's diminished role in the global economy will lead to a steady erosion of the US dollar’s status as a reserve currency.

Macroeconomics · 08 May 2025

Barometer: Equities set for further falls as tariffs bite

As the effects of US import tariffs begin to emerge, we shift our stance on equities to underweight

Macroeconomics · 08 Apr 2025

Liberation Day sell-off: Trump tariff blitz raises recession risk

Investors should reduce risk and seek haven in defensive sectors and government bonds as the tariff shock raises the risk of US recession.

Macroeconomics · 03 Apr 2025

Barometer: Emerging market assets offer refuge from Trump tariffs

With China's economic recovery gathering strength, we expect emerging market stocks and bonds to fare better than their tariff-hit developed market peers over the coming months.

Macroeconomics · 26 Mar 2025

Caroline Reyl: reflecting on 20 years managing Pictet’s Premium Brands strategy

To mark two decades of managing the strategy, we delve into the journey of Pictet’s Premium Brands strategy with Caroline Reyl, the Senior Investment Manager. Caroline has been at the helm of the strategy since its inception in 2005. In this interview, she offers an insider's perspective on the evolution and milestones of this journey.

Macroeconomics · 13 Mar 2025

Emerging market economies are more resilient than investors realise

Emerging market economies are proving to be far more resilient than in the past thanks to healthier fundamentals than most investors realise.

Macroeconomics · 04 Mar 2025

Barometer: Buying into Europe's Renaissance

Corporate earnings in Europe are on a tear. That's one reason why we're upgrading the region's stocks to overweight.

Macroeconomics · 20 Feb 2025

Malaysia: back on the emerging market equities map

Reform and investment are bringing Malaysia out of the shadows, opening up new investment opportunities in emerging market equities.

Macroeconomics · 19 Feb 2025

China isn’t turning Japanese

China's debt mountain and recent economic woes have investors worried it might be headed towards the type of debt deflation that triggered Japan's lost decades from the early 1990s. We think that's unlikely.

Macroeconomics · 06 Feb 2025

Barometer: US a bright spot as risks to rally multiply

As risks to the world economy multiply we have downgraded equities to neutral but still expect US stocks to outperform most other markets.

Macroeconomics · 29 Jan 2025

Emerging market companies narrowing the sustainability gap

Emerging market companies are improving their sustainability scores faster than the global average, suggesting they could soon become a key feature of sustainable equity portfolios.

Macroeconomics · 24 Jan 2025

European direct lending in 2025: looking beyond the crowds

Europe's growing private debt universe presents attractive investment opportunities, particularly in the less crowded lower mid-market.

Macroeconomics · 14 Jan 2025

The 5 lessons investors should learn from 2024

Gold was a top performer in unusual circumstances while US exceptionalism held firm.

Macroeconomics · 08 Jan 2025

Barometer: Sticking with stocks

Although last year’s rally has taken valuations for stocks to lofty levels, we believe US equities can build on their gains in the first few weeks of 2025.

Macroeconomics · 03 Dec 2024

Annual outlook for 2025

Resilient growth and falling interest rates in major economies should help equities outperform bonds next year, with US in the lead.

Macroeconomics · 07 Nov 2024

What does Trump’s victory mean for markets?

Donald Trump’s presidency should be good news for the dollar and US equities, but less positive for US bonds and emerging markets.

Macroeconomics · 05 Nov 2024

Barometer: US stocks have more to give

While the approaching US election has some investors on edge, we remain confident that the American economy will experience a soft landing whoever secures the White House. As a result, we remain overweight stocks and upgrade US equity.

Macroeconomics · 28 Oct 2024

Future-proofing the grid: an electrifying endeavour

An overhaul of energy infrastructure to allow more sustainability is stimulating investment across the sector.

Macroeconomics · 24 Oct 2024

An economy in transition

As climate change awareness grows, businesses take steps to improve ecosystem resilience.

Macroeconomics · 17 Oct 2024

Conflicts, elections, corrections: navigating the noise in financial markets

In a world where the relentless stream of news around financial markets can be overwhelming, it’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture and the underlying trends.

Macroeconomics · 04 Oct 2024

Barometer: Emerging markets' turn to shine

The prospects for emerging market stocks and bonds outside China are improving as interest rates fall worldwide.

Macroeconomics · 06 Sep 2024

Barometer: Conditions favour Swiss and financial stocks

Prospects for Swiss and financial stocks look bright even if equity markets are likely to remain volatile.

Macroeconomics · 22 Aug 2024

Euro area wages

Falling wage growth in Q2 seals deal for September rate cut.

Macroeconomics · 02 Jul 2024

Barometer: Scaling back IT but still positive on stocks

Conditions remain favourable for equity markets overall but we trim exposure to tech stocks following their stellar run.

Macroeconomics · 25 Jun 2024

Secular outlook 2024

Our analysis shows the dispersion of returns across domestic equity and bond markets will decline over the next five years. This suggests investors should consider investing across sectoral lines and allocate more of their capital to corporate bonds.

Macroeconomics · 19 Jun 2024

Data centres: embracing the impact of AI

As AI fuels the need for ever more data, we require data centres to store and process all the information securely. Businesses which contribute to the efficiency of data centres will have the upper hand.

Macroeconomics · 04 Jun 2024

Barometer: Staying overweight equities as world economy avoids slowdown

Prospects for the world economy have improved and interest rates are about to fall. That's a positive backdrop for stock markets in the near term.

Macroeconomics · 04 Jun 2024

Biodiversity bonds: the new frontier in fixed income markets

Sovereign, supranational and corporate borrowers are issuing bonds that embed biodiversity protection and restoration goals.

Macroeconomics · 17 May 2024

The risk of staying risk-free

Investors are clinging to cash now that it offers a level of income not seen for more than a decade. But in doing so, they're missing out on much better opportunities.

Macroeconomics · 17 May 2024

Barometer: Stars align for European equities

Economic conditions in Europe are improving while interest rates in the region could soon head lower. This augurs well for European stocks, which we upgrade to overweight.

Macroeconomics · 04 Apr 2024

Private assets – the opportunity to uncover gems in an uncertain world

Private investments have shown a remarkable capacity to deliver appealing returns over the last 20 years and, despite a challenging macroeconomic picture, they still offer the potential for attractive returns over the long term for agile investors who are prepared to lock up their money for several years.

Macroeconomics · 04 Apr 2024

Barometer: A spring in the market's step

Equities should extend their rally as interest rate cuts appear imminent in the US and other developed economies.

Macroeconomics · 07 Mar 2024

Barometer: Tech's profit growth should continue to propel stocks

Robust earnings from the IT sector suggest tech stocks should add to their gains. Japanese equities are also set to extend their rally.

Macroeconomics · 14 Feb 2024

Taking on more duration

With interest rates set to tumble, top-quality bonds of longer duration make sense.

Macroeconomics · 14 Feb 2024

Later and Fewer

We now expect a delayed and a shallower Fed easing cycle.

Macroeconomics · 12 Feb 2024

Barometer: A tactical opportunity emerges in equities

As inflation continues to slow and economic growth remains resilient we upgrade stocks to overweight as part of a tactical move.

Macroeconomics · 01 Feb 2024

Gold rush

Despite the chance of a short-term pull-back, the precious metal still looks attractive on a longer-term basis.

Macroeconomics · 04 Jan 2024

Barometer: Markets getting carried away

Equities and bonds have rallied sharply as a growing number of investors see aggressive monetary easing in 2024. We also believe rates will fall, but not as steeply as markets envisage.

Macroeconomics · 04 Jan 2024

Barometer: Markets getting carried away

Equities and bonds have rallied sharply as a growing number of investors see aggressive monetary easing in 2024. We also believe rates will fall, but not as steeply as markets envisage.

Macroeconomics · 06 Dec 2023

The investment landscape in 2024

US stocks look set to trail European and Swiss equities in a year that will also see bonds gain in response to slower growth.

Macroeconomics · 02 Dec 2023

Swiss economy and government bonds: 2024 outlook

We expect the Swiss economy to remain sluggish next year. Swiss bonds have performed strongly, but we see limited further room for yield compression.

Macroeconomics · 01 Dec 2023

Precious metals: 2024 outlook

Gold prices could rise moderately in 2024, but other precious metals could do better.

Macroeconomics · 30 Nov 2023

Core government bonds: 2024 outlook

We maintain our upbeat stance on US Treasuries and have moved to overweight on core European bonds.

Macroeconomics · 04 Oct 2023

China: big shoes to fill

Strengthening policy support and signs that manufacturing is stabilising point to a moderate recovery over the rest of the year, although China’s longer-term growth potential is weakening.

Macroeconomics · 23 Sep 2023

Bank of Japan, Japanese government bonds and yen

The Japanese monetary tanker is slowly turning.

Macroeconomics · 26 Jun 2023

The end of globalisation?

The process of globalisation is unlikely to end completely, but it is facing increasing challenges. In the next decade, we expect trade frictions to continue to lead to higher inflationary pressure and more financial instability.

Macroeconomics · 21 Jun 2023

Secular outlook 2023

Securing single-digit annual returns from a diversified portfolio could prove an unusually complex task in the next five years, largely because of volatile inflation and more muscular state intervention.