Macroeconomic insights
Macroeconomic trends shape the foundations of financial markets. From growth cycles and inflation to fiscal and monetary policy, these forces influence investment performance and long-term strategy.
Understanding macroeconomics
Our experts provide in-depth perspectives on the key drivers of the global economy, analysing shifts in interest rates, trade balances and capital flows to help investors navigate an evolving landscape with clarity and foresight.
Horizon 2026 – Our macroeconomic publication
In 2026, geopolitical tensions continue to rise, the USA and China compete for dominance and countries are shifting towards strategic autonomy. Until now, the economy was powered by fossil fuels. The economy of the future will be powered by energy and materials. Emerging economies are gaining importance, supplying what the world needs most, AI infrastructure and raw materials. But scarcity and other secular drivers are driving up inflation, from 2% to ~3% creating demand for capital. Central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty as landscape is changing. In this race for resource sovereignty, investors should consider a refreshed approach.
Horizon 2026
The race for resource sovereignty
Our macroeconomics outlook revisits long-term economic and asset class forecasts and delves into some of the key topics we expect to drive markets over the coming years.
All insights on macroeconomics
Macroeconomics · 25 Sept 2026
Energy independence and access to commodities in the era of electrification
Energy independence and secure access to commodities have become central to economic policy in the 2020s, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility and the global climate transition.
Macroeconomics · 23 Sept 2026
From monetary independence to fiscal dominance?
In previous “Horizon” publications, we have highlighted several structural trends shaping economies, including demographics, deglobalisation, decarbonisation, debt and digitalisation. Successive crises – such as the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the trade war and the recent Middle East conflict – have exacerbated these trends.
Macroeconomics · 23 Sept 2026
The great scramble for resources
Today’s increasingly fragmented world is driving a dash to secure resource sovereignty. Across the globe, governments are prioritising energy security and access to key commodities in the face of conflicts, trade barriers and climate change.
Macroeconomics · 21 Sept 2026
Weekly house view | Xi-Trump, round two
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 21 Sept 2026
Stablecoins versus the digital euro
The rapid evolution of digital finance has brought stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to the forefront of global economic discussions. Stablecoins, which are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value, have experienced explosive growth. This is prompting new regulatory frameworks and raising important questions about their impact on financial stability, monetary policy and the international monetary system. At the same time, central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty and adapt to changing payment landscapes.
Macroeconomics · 15 Sept 2026
The 2020s in historical perspective
Sir Niall Ferguson has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law,” highlights how US fiscal profligacy threatens the durability of American power just as a second Cold War is emerging between the US and China.
Macroeconomics · 14 Sept 2026
Weekly house view | Bonds not Ha-PPI
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Sept 2026
Horizon 2026 – The race for resource sovereignty
A new era is upon us. The post-war, rules-based period of multilateralism has given way to multipolar rivalry and, by extension, heightened geopolitical tensions in a more uncertain world. At the core of this multipolar rivalry is a competition for supremacy between the US and China. And at the heart of their rivalry is a race for technological leadership – particularly in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The superpowers’ quest for digital dominance extends to a competition for the resources needed to power the AI economy. Their fragile trade truce is indicative of a highly charged environment, in which “resource sovereignty” is the defining imperative.
Macroeconomics · 07 Sept 2026
Weekly house view | Fed waiting for CPI to decide
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 07 Sept 2026
Monthly house view | September 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 31 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Biggest oil deal in history
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 24 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | The “Bessent put”
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 17 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | All eyes on Fed and retailers
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 10 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Inflation anticipation
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 04 Aug 2026
Monthly house view | August 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 03 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Situational (mis) awareness
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 27 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | AI capex mistrust
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 20 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | Chip dip
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Jul 2026
Will China rule Artificial Intelligence like it does Electric Vehicles?
The US’s longstanding leadership in technological innovation is being challenged. Not only is China already at the vanguard in everything to do with electrification and clean energy, it’s also making giant strides in catching up with the US in the hottest field in tech right now: AI. Who prevails in the race for AI supremacy will shape the world for decades to come.
Macroeconomics · 13 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | Hormuz, open or closed?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 07 Jul 2026
A new world (dis)order
This year, the relentless flow of financial news and geopolitical events can feel overwhelming. In the first quarter of 2026, geopolitical developments related to Venezuela, Greenland and Iran contributed to heightened market volatility. During the same period, artificial intelligence tools showed their potential to disrupt established business models.
Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | German reform package agreed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026
Monthly house view | July 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 29 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Happy 250th Anniversary
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 22 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Regime change at the Fed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 15 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | A deal… to sign a deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jun 2026
Monthly house view | June 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Jobs surprise spooks markets
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 01 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Waiting for a deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 May 2026
Weekly house view | SpaceX-traterrestrial ambitions
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 18 May 2026
Weekly house view | A Warsh welcome!
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 11 May 2026
Weekly house view | Trump-Xi to meet again
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 04 May 2026
Weekly house view | No war, no peace, no oil
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 04 May 2026
Monthly house view | May 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 27 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | In limbo
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 20 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | No deal yet
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 13 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | No deal, Hormuz closed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 07 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | To the moon and back
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Apr 2026
Monthly house view | March 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 30 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | The clock is ticking
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 23 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | Central banks enter the war
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | It takes two to TACO
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | From wildcard to reality
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Mar 2026
Weekly house view | Operation Epic Fury launched
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 23 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | Tariffs are dead, long live the new tariffs
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 23 Feb 2026
Monthly house view | March 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 16 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | From AI-phoria to AI-phobia?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | Tech tantrum
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Feb 2026
Weekly house view | And the winner is… Kevin Warsh
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | Green deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 19 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | A spirit of dialogue at Davos
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 12 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | Earnings to the fore
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 05 Jan 2026
Weekly house view | Donroe Doctrine
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 15 Dec 2025
Weekly house view | AI trade in trouble
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Dec 2025
In focus: Sir Niall Ferguson – Cold War II
Sir Niall Ferguson, Managing Director, Greenmantle, has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law” highlights how US fiscal mismanagement could threaten the durability of American power just as a second cold war is emerging between the US and China.
Macroeconomics · 08 Dec 2025
Weekly house view | Hawkish cut
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 01 Dec 2025
Weekly house view | Holiday retail cheer
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 Nov 2025
Time to get real
Watch the video to see why real assets matter in today’s changing market.
Macroeconomics · 24 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Thanksgiving ultimatum
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 17 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Nvidia to the rescue?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 10 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Markets jumpy on confusing data
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 06 Nov 2025
Global trade capital flows and the US dollar
The US has long been a dominant force in the global economy, bolstered by its status as the world’s largest economy and the dollar’s role as the primary reserve currency. However, this foundation is coming under growing pressure, as the rapid expansion of its twin-deficits is causing concern among market participants.
Macroeconomics · 03 Nov 2025
Weekly house view | Waiting for the Supreme Court
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 27 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Chickening out?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 21 Oct 2025
Monthly house view | October 2025
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 20 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Cockroaches in the market
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Oct 2025
The great digital decoupling
When Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek launched a large language model in January with a similar performance to that of US rival OpenAI at a fraction of the cost and computing power, it did not just set the stage for a battle between the US and China for AI supremacy.
Macroeconomics · 13 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Trump China tariff threat 2.0
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Oct 2025
US fiscal situation: hardly sustainable
Last year, we identified a deteriorating fiscal backdrop in the US and argued that the unique status of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency and the depth of the US capital markets provide exceptional fiscal leeway. We also said US debt and deficit reduction were likely to remain politically challenging.
Macroeconomics · 06 Oct 2025
Weekly house view | Japan heading for first female PM
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 29 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | US government shutdown looms
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 22 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Don’t fight the fed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Sept 2025
Monthly house view | September 2025
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 15 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Fed: time to cut
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Sept 2025
Horizon 2025 - Turning inward
The world has changed. The end of “Pax Americana”, marked by recent US policy shifts, has closed the era of American-led global stability. Nations are now turning inward.
Macroeconomics · 08 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Ishiba out, Bayrou next?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 01 Sept 2025
Weekly house view | Tariffs hiccup
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 25 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | The Fed put is back on
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 18 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | Waiting for Powell
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 11 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | Trump, Putin finally meet
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 04 Aug 2025
Weekly house view | We have a deal
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 28 Jul 2025
Weekly house view | We have a deal
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 21 Jul 2025
Weekly house view | Defiant in the defeat
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 17 Jul 2025
Embracing endowment-style investing
Endowment-style investing is about a disciplined, long-term approach to creating well-diversified portfolios built on solid strategic asset allocation.
Macroeconomics · 14 Jul 2025
Weekly house view | To taco or not to taco?
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jul 2025
Monthly house view | July 2025
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 07 Jul 2025
Weekly house view | You’ve got mail
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 30 Jun 2025
Weekly house view | Peace in the Middle East, war at the Fed
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 23 Jun 2025
Weekly house view | US hits Iran’s nuclear facilities
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Jun 2025
Weekly house view | War in the Middle East
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 11 Jun 2025
Monthly house view | June 2025
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 10 Jun 2025
Weekly house view | Trump-Musk break-up
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Jun 2025
Weekly house view | Tariffs’ trial
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 May 2025
Weekly house view | Mr. Bond hits back
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 19 May 2025
Weekly house view | US loses its AAA status
The CIO's view of the week ahead
Macroeconomics · 12 May 2025
Weekly house view | Fumata bianca
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 12 May 2025
Monthly house view | May 2025
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 05 May 2025
Weekly house view | Farewell Warren
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 28 Apr 2025
Weekly house view | China plays hardball
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 22 Apr 2025
Weekly house view | Waiting for Trump to pivot
The CIO's view of the week ahead.
From macroeconomic data to market insights
Our insights focus on identifying the underlying forces behind global growth, inflation trends and policy responses, allowing for a clearer assessment of risks and opportunities across regions and sectors.
Actionable macroeconomic analysis
Reliable macroeconomic data underpin every informed investment decision. By analysing key indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, employment trends and central bank policies, our analysts develop a coherent view of the global economy. These insights go beyond observation – they transform complex macroeconomic developments into actionable guidance. By assessing the impact of policy shifts, geopolitical tensions and demographic changes on asset prices and investor behaviour, we provide a forward-looking perspective designed to support resilient and responsible investment strategies.
