Technology legend Steve Wozniak surveys the IT landscape
“You know, you can’t read anything these days without coming across AI,” he says. “It’s the hype of the day. I believe the “A” part is correct, but it isn’t intelligent. We don’t know how our brains work. We can’t decode our memories; we don’t really know what they are. What is an idea?”
He has a list of achievements and honours that make him tech royalty. But that hasn’t lost him his avuncular nature or innate friendliness. It’s easy to see how “Woz” – as he’s universally known – could inspire the kind of creativity and energy needed to drive a company like Apple. In his view, real intelligence has to have an emotional dimension.
“Computers are calculators. It’s not so much artificial intelligence as algorithmic intelligence. I see AI as a collection of super algorithms. In some things, it looks like it can do the job better than us. It can play the same game nine billion times, which we can’t do, and then it can beat humans at chess. But it’s not emotional. It operates on a purely mathematical, calculated basis. It presents well. The version of AI we’re most familiar with is large language models (LLMs), where the tech just learns how to speak with proper grammar. People mistake proper grammar for intelligence; they don’t challenge it. AI is able to sound like it’s coming from a human mouth. That makes people trust it.”
What AI tells us sounds real in the same way as a dream seems real. But how do we know what’s true?
So how do we temper that? “You hear people say that AI needs regulation. But how can we regulate something we can’t really define? We don’t understand clearly what AI is. The regulation we need is to know what it was trained on. It answers questions well. But it will never really tell you where certain phrases and inclusions come from. We need citations. AI companies will tell you they’re transparent. The trouble is that transparency is only in their pricing, or the release of a new version. This isn’t transparency.”
The dot-com boom, he argues, is a good comparison for what’s happening in terms of investment in AI. “Back then, there was also a lot of hype. But people can’t change at the same pace. It takes a long time to embed these technologies in everyday life.”
Is the bubble going to burst? “I don’t get into trying to predict this stuff.” The hype around the dotcom boom – that everything would be moving online and to the cloud – was valid, but the timeline didn’t align with reality. “Twenty years later, yes, it’s true. But culture change moves at a different pace.”
And while the rest of the world is blinded by the glitter of AI, there’s a lot happening that isn’t frontpage news. “I believe that quantum computing is going to come to find some real, valuable uses. Nobody talks about optical computing, where instead of using electrons, it uses only photons. This means processing at the speed of light inside the chip. That’s incredibly fast.”
Fig. 1 - Runaway training
The number of unique data points used to train models for notable AI systems. Each domain has a specific data point unit; for example, for vision it is images, for language it is words and for games, it is timesteps. This means systems can only be compared directly within the same domain.
This matters in virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR). “Take AI glasses or contact lenses. We’re talking about a world in which you can turn your head and what you see changes instantly. That takes an incredible amount of processing power and pixels. I’d love to see something so simple you almost don’t notice it.”
There’s been big improvement in battery technology too, responding to increased demand as electric vehicles begin to replace the internal combustion engine. “Automated driving is interesting, but I’m
sceptical on this one. On long road trips, or a well trained track where conditions are predictable, it can be great – though that’s not much different from a train. But self-driving vehicles in cities, where everything is constantly changing...? We’re still waiting for something that doesn’t try to kill us.” He notes that Tesla once claimed it would have a car that could drive itself across the US by 2016. “That was 10 years ago. It couldn’t come close. It’s not good at responding to the unusual. We’ve got a long way to go. We’ll need new laws and unfortunately a certain number of accidents need to happen before we can work out how to handle it.”
And while some of these developments look good for the environment, he’s doubtful about top tech companies’ claims of being eco-friendly. “They just don’t have the freedom. They’ve got a boss, and that boss is the shareholder. There’s a tension between cost and the environment.” Companies have to make a profit, but they also need to care about the people that buy their products. “It used to be enough to simply make good products. Serving the user was the main purpose. But now we’re favouring the producer over the user – in ethics and privacy too. When it’s the wrong way around, the human has to modify themselves to adapt to the technology. We need to favour the human over the tech. It’s hard to achieve that when you’re trying to sell products for a profit. But it’s essential, it’s overlooked and it’s becoming rare. Some companies are better than others.” The shareholders, as he sees it, will be the driver – that, or regulation. “As it is, we send our mess to other shores. We don’t care about polluting countries we don’t know the names of. The pressure might need to come from government.”
Woz has long been a philanthropist and campaigner for computer capability in schools, alongside hands-on, experimental learning that encourages innovation. Nine years ago, he co-founded WOZ U, a post-secondary education and training platform focused on software engineering and tech development. So, what does he think about the role of AI in this space?
“Like everything, there’s good and bad. If I use AI to write a beautiful paper, did I learn it? Did I even think it? We need to make sure we’re not claiming credit for things other people produce and that we don’t just say something that sounds good. What AI tells us sounds real in the same way as a dream seems real. But how do we know what’s true? You can ask a question and get answers you might not have considered. But they’re only partial answers. We get lazy, and we don’t check or think for ourselves.” So, what can we do about it? “AI is a good reporter, but you should be the editor. You should be making the choices about meaning and expression. Your own thinking – that’s actual intelligence.”
After 50 years in business, he’s remarkably humble. “The biggest lesson I’ve learned is that you have to respect all the disciplines. Marketing is important, accounting, operations. You can’t just be good at one thing; and don’t think that you can be the heart of it all. It’s a form of honesty. Say what you really believe and you’ll ensure honesty for your clients.”
I believe entrepreneurship is the most important thing in the world...[it] is the heart of new wealth on every level of society.
And as the age of AI looms, he’s optimistic about the future of human creativity. “I believe that entrepreneurship is the most important thing in the world. The feeling that you can create – that alone inspires so much direction. Entrepreneurship is the heart of new wealth on every level of society. The economies of every country grow through innovation. It’s not all taken. The big tech companies of the world aren’t all running the show. You have a choice. Some people grow up curious. Something occurs to them. What if this thing could be different? That’s not what AI does. AI does what already is. But a human can take an idea and make it reality.” The one question that flummoxes Woz is a request for a publicity photograph. “I’ll have to ask my wife. She’ll know.” As for the bigger picture, he sees the technological landscape as clearly as ever.
Marketing communication
The information and data presented in this document are not to be considered as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe to any securities or financial instruments or services. The information used in the preparation of this document is based upon sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of those sources. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to change without notice. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any products or services offered or distributed by Pictet Asset Management. Pictet Asset Management has not ensured the suitability of the securities mentioned in this document for any specific investor, and it should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent judgment; investors are advised to determine the suitability of the investment based on their financial knowledge, experience, goals and situation, or to seek specific advice from an industry professional before making any investment decisions. Investors should read the prospectus or offering memorandum before investing in any Pictet managed funds. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each investor and may be subject to change in the future. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount originally invested.