Weekly house view

Macroeconomics · 02 Mar 2026

0 min read

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

The week in review

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and 40 top officials were killed in joint US and Israel strikes on Saturday, an assault that triggered retaliatory strikes by Tehran across the Middle East. With Operation Eric Fury, US President Donald Trump is aiming for regime change and a short conflict. Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one fifth of global oil is transported, in order to pressure Trump to seek a resolution. The eruption of the conflict came just days after the fourth anniversary of the war in Ukraine and as Pakistan declared “open war” after bombing Afghan cities—developments that highlight rising geopolitical instability.

Despite these tensions, as well as strong US producer prices, and Federal Reserve hawkish minutes, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries ended last week below 4%. This was due to concerns about private credit—angst that was fed by losses stemming from UK-based mortgage provider MFS. Lower Treasury yields helped pull 30-year US mortgage rates below 6% for the first time since 2022. In the tech sector, Nvidia failed to impress markets with strong results, signalling concerns about the course of the AI economy even as OpenAI said it has raised USD 110 bn to fuel the development of AI. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% (in USD) on the week.

Quote of the week

“This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country,” Trump said.

Key data

Prices paid to US producers rose in January by more than forecast, fueled by services and pointing to lingering inflationary pressures. The producer price index increased 0.5%, the most since September, after a revised 0.4% increase in December. German GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter, after flat growth in the third quarter, confirming the initial estimate. Domestic demand contributed 0.7 percentage points to growth—the strongest contribution since the first quarter of 2022. Forward-looking indicators (including Purchasing Managers Indices, and the Ifo business sentiment survey) suggest momentum continued into the first quarter.

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