Weekly house view | Defiant in the defeat
The week in review
Last week, 125 of the 248 seats in Japan’s House of Councillors faced re-election. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition lost its hold, winning only 47 seats – three short of a majority. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has now lost majority in both chambers for the first time since its 1955 founding. Ishiba remains defiantly determined to stay on. Meanwhile in the US, the Federal Reserve’s independence is being undermined by Trump’s threat to fire Chair Jerome Powell over the USD 2.5 bn “Palace of Versailles” renovations of the Fed’s HQ. Should Powell sue to stay, the case against him appears weak, but the process could
affect market stability. In business, the Fed’s latest economic review indicates companies are putting labour decisions on hold and passing on cost increases. The corporate reporting season has started strong but with a low bar. The US government has committed to a 15% share the company operating America’s biggest rare earth mine, reducing dependence on Chinese-dominated mineral imports. Sales of chips to China may begin again under US license, but the original ban has been labelled “the right call” by a House of Representatives panel. The S&P 500i edged up 0.4% last week (in USD). In Europe, shares are down 16% for one of the best-selling car manufacturers, following disappointing projections. European infrastructure spending is boosting share prices in related companies. France has announced its intention to stick totighter spending, with talk of cutting two public holidays.
Geopolitics
Trump has threatened 100% tariffs for Russia if Putin doesn’t start negotiations with Ukraine within the next 50 days. European Union states have approved a fresh sanctions package on Russia over its war against Ukraine, including a revised oil price cap and new banking restrictions.
Key data
In the US, core CPI rose for the third straight month, but less than expected. Banks report good US consumer health, though core goods prices (excepting used vehicles) are rising at the strongest pace since 2023. In Q2, Chinese GDP grew 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, but demand drivers slowed. Real disposable and wage income growth are at their lowest since 2023. Capacity utilisation rate hit a low not experienced since 2016. Housing prices continued to decline as residential sales slumped 12.6% year-on-year as of June. In the UK, headline Consumer Price Index rose to 3.6% year-on-year in June. Core CPI also rose to 3.7% year-on-year. Services CPI stayed at 4.7%. An August rate cut is expected. UK unemployment has risen to 4.7%.