Macroeconomic insights
Macroeconomic trends shape the foundations of financial markets. From growth cycles and inflation to fiscal and monetary policy, these forces influence investment performance and long-term strategy.
Understanding macroeconomics
Our experts provide in-depth perspectives on the key drivers of the global economy, analysing shifts in interest rates, trade balances and capital flows to help investors navigate an evolving landscape with clarity and foresight.
Horizon 2026 – Our macroeconomic publication
In 2026, geopolitical tensions continue to rise, the USA and China compete for dominance and countries are shifting towards strategic autonomy. Until now, the economy was powered by fossil fuels. The economy of the future will be powered by energy and materials. Emerging economies are gaining importance, supplying what the world needs most, AI infrastructure and raw materials. But scarcity and other secular drivers are driving up inflation, from 2% to ~3% creating demand for capital. Central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty as landscape is changing. In this race for resource sovereignty, investors should consider a refreshed approach.
Horizon 2026
The race for resource sovereignty
Our macroeconomics outlook revisits long-term economic and asset class forecasts and delves into some of the key topics we expect to drive markets over the coming years.
All insights on macroeconomics
Macroeconomics · 28 Sep 2026
Weekly house view | Markets are a-Mused
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 25 Sep 2026
Energy independence and access to commodities in the era of electrification
Energy independence and secure access to commodities have become central to economic policy in the 2020s, shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, market volatility and the global climate transition.
Macroeconomics · 23 Sep 2026
The great scramble for resources
Today’s increasingly fragmented world is driving a dash to secure resource sovereignty. Across the globe, governments are prioritising energy security and access to key commodities in the face of conflicts, trade barriers and climate change.
Macroeconomics · 23 Sep 2026
From monetary independence to fiscal dominance?
In previous “Horizon” publications, we have highlighted several structural trends shaping economies, including demographics, deglobalisation, decarbonisation, debt and digitalisation. Successive crises – such as the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the trade war and the recent Middle East conflict – have exacerbated these trends.
Macroeconomics · 21 Sep 2026
Weekly house view | Xi-Trump, round two
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 21 Sep 2026
Stablecoins versus the digital euro
The rapid evolution of digital finance has brought stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to the forefront of global economic discussions. Stablecoins, which are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value, have experienced explosive growth. This is prompting new regulatory frameworks and raising important questions about their impact on financial stability, monetary policy and the international monetary system. At the same time, central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty and adapt to changing payment landscapes.
Macroeconomics · 15 Sep 2026
The 2020s in historical perspective
Sir Niall Ferguson has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law,” highlights how US fiscal profligacy threatens the durability of American power just as a second Cold War is emerging between the US and China.
Macroeconomics · 14 Sep 2026
Weekly house view | Bonds not Ha-PPI
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 09 Sep 2026
Re-equitisation: investing in a high issuance era
For much of the past two decades, equity investors have enjoyed a powerful tailwind: the phenomenon of “de-equitisation.” During this period, companies have bought back more shares than they issued, which has reduced the volume of listed equities and supported stock prices. That era appears to be ending.
Macroeconomics · 08 Sep 2026
Horizon 2026 – The race for resource sovereignty
A new era is upon us. The post-war, rules-based period of multilateralism has given way to multipolar rivalry and, by extension, heightened geopolitical tensions in a more uncertain world. At the core of this multipolar rivalry is a competition for supremacy between the US and China. And at the heart of their rivalry is a race for technological leadership – particularly in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). The superpowers’ quest for digital dominance extends to a competition for the resources needed to power the AI economy. Their fragile trade truce is indicative of a highly charged environment, in which “resource sovereignty” is the defining imperative.
Macroeconomics · 07 Sep 2026
Weekly house view | Fed waiting for CPI to decide
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 07 Sep 2026
Monthly house view | September 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 31 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Biggest oil deal in history
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 24 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | The “Bessent put”
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 17 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | All eyes on Fed and retailers
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 10 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Inflation anticipation
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 04 Aug 2026
Monthly house view | August 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 03 Aug 2026
Weekly house view | Situational (mis) awareness
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 27 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | AI capex mistrust
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 20 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | Chip dip
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 16 Jul 2026
Will China rule Artificial Intelligence like it does Electric Vehicles?
The US’s longstanding leadership in technological innovation is being challenged. Not only is China already at the vanguard in everything to do with electrification and clean energy, it’s also making giant strides in catching up with the US in the hottest field in tech right now: AI. Who prevails in the race for AI supremacy will shape the world for decades to come.
Macroeconomics · 13 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | Hormuz, open or closed?
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 07 Jul 2026
A new world (dis)order
This year, the relentless flow of financial news and geopolitical events can feel overwhelming. In the first quarter of 2026, geopolitical developments related to Venezuela, Greenland and Iran contributed to heightened market volatility. During the same period, artificial intelligence tools showed their potential to disrupt established business models.
Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026
Weekly house view | German reform package agreed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 06 Jul 2026
Monthly house view | July 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 29 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Happy 250th Anniversary
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 22 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Regime change at the Fed
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 15 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | A deal… to sign a deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jun 2026
Monthly house view | June 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 08 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Jobs surprise spooks markets
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 02 Jun 2026
Barometer: In earnings we trust
Corporate profits are growing at a remarkable pace across the world. That is sure to sustain the equity rally over the medium run.
Macroeconomics · 01 Jun 2026
Weekly house view | Waiting for a deal
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 26 May 2026
Weekly house view | SpaceX-traterrestrial ambitions
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 18 May 2026
Weekly house view | A Warsh welcome!
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 11 May 2026
Weekly house view | Trump-Xi to meet again
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 04 May 2026
Monthly house view | May 2026
Pictet Wealth Management’s latest positioning across asset classes and investment themes.
Macroeconomics · 04 May 2026
Weekly house view | No war, no peace, no oil
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 27 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | In limbo
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 20 Apr 2026
Weekly house view | No deal yet
The CIO’s view of the week ahead.
Macroeconomics · 08 Dec 2025
In focus: Sir Niall Ferguson – Cold War II
Sir Niall Ferguson, Managing Director, Greenmantle, has spent his career explaining how economic history can help inform contemporary policy decisions. His latest theory, dubbed “Ferguson’s Law” highlights how US fiscal mismanagement could threaten the durability of American power just as a second cold war is emerging between the US and China.
From macroeconomic data to market insights
Our insights focus on identifying the underlying forces behind global growth, inflation trends and policy responses, allowing for a clearer assessment of risks and opportunities across regions and sectors.
Actionable macroeconomic analysis
Reliable macroeconomic data underpin every informed investment decision. By analysing key indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, employment trends and central bank policies, our analysts develop a coherent view of the global economy. These insights go beyond observation – they transform complex macroeconomic developments into actionable guidance. By assessing the impact of policy shifts, geopolitical tensions and demographic changes on asset prices and investor behaviour, we provide a forward-looking perspective designed to support resilient and responsible investment strategies.
