The great scramble for resources
Executive summary
As geopolitical conflicts, trade barriers, and climate change drive global fragmentation, governments across the world are prioritising resource sovereignty and energy security. Although the global economy continues to demonstrate resilience, it remains vulnerable to supply shocks and sticky inflation, heightened in the short term by material demand for artificial intelligence. Over the longer term, AI adoption is expected to boost productivity, particularly in the US, Europe, and emerging Asian markets. In this macro-driven environment, long-term portfolio management must adapt by focusing on diversification, real assets, equities, alternative assets, and high-quality fixed income with a domestic bias.
Global fragmentation spurs quest for self-sufficiency
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Pursuit of sovereignty amid fragmentation
Geopolitical tensions and trade barriers are compelling states to secure critical resources, leaving the global economy exposed to more frequent supply shocks and price volatility.
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Dual economic impact of artificial intelligence
Short-term demand for materials to power artificial intelligence adds to inflationary pressures, but widespread adoption is projected to enhance long-term productivity across regions.
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Need for strategic portfolio adaptation
An uncertain macroeconomic environment requires refined portfolio management focused on greater diversification through real assets, equities, alternative investments, and high-quality fixed income.
A resilient yet fragile world economy
The world economy has proven resilient, yet it remains vulnerable to more frequent and more severe supply shocks. This uncertain environment is likely to result in more volatile prices, exacerbated in the short term by “techflation” driven by demand for the materials needed to power the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Emerging markets are adapting and gaining in importance for their resources and infrastructure.
This is the context in which we present our macroeconomic outlook.
This fragmented world is marked by a race for sovereignty and security. A trade war in 2025 and the US-Iran war in 2026 have accelerated the fragmentation of trade, security, commodities and financial markets. Against this backdrop, the global economy has proved remarkably resilient, yet it remains vulnerable to more frequent and more severe supply shocks. Risk premia in energy markets, in particular, are expected to remain elevated.
The fragmented world calls for diversified portfolios with a focus on real assets, including a larger allocation to equities and alternative assets, and a more domestic bias within high quality fixed income.
AI as a new macro and geopolitical force
AI has emerged as a political and geopolitical driver. The AI investment boom is reshaping corporate balance sheets, boosting profit margins and supporting the consumer wealth effect. One challenge will come from government regulation amid a social and political backlash over AI disruption, labour market fragility, and income inequality.
AI is also a productivity booster. We have slightly upgraded our potential growth estimates to reflect a gradual productivity boost from AI adoption. The US is likely to benefit more than the rest of the world, but Europe and Asian EM are catching up. We expect the AI boom to be broadly disinflationary over the longer run.
We expect inflation to remain volatile and sticky. Inflation is forecast to remain higher on average than in previous decades, also driven by commodities and “techflation” in the near term. Over the longer term, secular drivers such as demographics and decarbonisation are fuelling inflationary pressures.
Source: Pictet Wealth Management, LSEG, as at 30.06.2026
Monetary stability, fiscal fragility
We expect central banks to preserve their independence and the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations. Policy rates have moved closer to our estimates of the neutral rate in most regions (3.375% in the US and 2.25% in the euro area), giving central banks more room to ease in the next downturn.
Fiscal vulnerabilities remain an issue. Rising bond yields are exposing the weakest links in the public sector as decades of accumulating debt overhang reduce the fiscal space going forward. However, we do not anticipate an imminent systemic sovereign debt crisis in either the US or Europe.
The European revival is bending, not breaking: Europe has been hit harder by the 2026 energy crisis, but growth is still expected to catch up, driven by multi-year public and private investment programmes in defence, infrastructure and energy. Greater financial and fiscal integration in the euro area remains the direction of travel.
China and emerging markets are at an inflection point. Emerging markets are quickly adapting to a more fragmented world, benefiting from a focus on AI, energy and supply chain security that is creating differentiated opportunities across markets. China is shifting to a lower, but more stable long-term growth model focusing on its strategic priorities.
Today’s increasingly fragmented world is driving a dash to secure resource sovereignty.
The BRICS+ coalition, with China in the vanguard, has shown it can help turbo charge the growth prospects of some of its members. If the coalition manages to effectively leverage the full array of resources and influence at its disposal, these gains could spill over to a wider group of developing nations. We live in a geopolitics- and macro-driven market environment. These drivers are likely to dominate markets for years to come, altering the risk calculus and requiring portfolio management to adapt accordingly.
From global to more domestic allocation
The changing global context has clear investment implications. The fragmented world calls for diversified portfolios with a focus on real assets, including a larger allocation to equities and alternative assets, and a more domestic bias within high-quality fixed income.
Horizon 2026
Macroeconomia · 08 set 2026
Horizon 2026 – La corsa alla sovranità sulle risorse
Siamo entrati in una nuova era. Il periodo postbellico di multilateralismo basato su regole ha lasciato il posto ad una rivalità multipolare e, di conseguenza, a crescenti tensioni politiche in un mondo caratterizzato da maggiore incertezza. Al centro di questa rivalità multipolare vi è una competizione per la supremazia tra Stati Uniti e Cina. E al cuore della stessa vi è una corsa alla leadership tecnologica, in particolare nel campo dell'intelligenza artificiale (IA). La ricerca delle superpotenze per il predominio digitale si estende ad una competizione per le risorse necessarie ad alimentare l'economia dell'IA. La fragile tregua commerciale tra loro è indicativa di un contesto caratterizzato da forti tensioni, nel quale la «sovranità sulle risorse» rappresenta l'imperativo dominante.
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The rapid evolution of digital finance has brought stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to the forefront of global economic discussions. Stablecoins, which are digital assets designed to maintain a stable value, have experienced explosive growth. This is prompting new regulatory frameworks and raising important questions about their impact on financial stability, monetary policy and the international monetary system. At the same time, central banks are exploring digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty and adapt to changing payment landscapes.
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The great scramble for resources
Today’s increasingly fragmented world is driving a dash to secure resource sovereignty. Across the globe, governments are prioritising energy security and access to key commodities in the face of conflicts, trade barriers and climate change.
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From monetary independence to fiscal dominance?
In previous “Horizon” publications, we have highlighted several structural trends shaping economies, including demographics, deglobalisation, decarbonisation, debt and digitalisation. Successive crises – such as the Covid pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the trade war and the recent Middle East conflict – have exacerbated these trends.
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Energy independence and access to commodities in the era of electrification
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*Topographies of Fragility
Presentazione della serie
La serie Topographies of Fragility nasce da una ricerca, portata avanti per tutta la vita, di luoghi nella natura capaci di offrire spazi di contemplazione, silenzio e radicamento emotivo, paesaggi che sembrano incontaminati dalla natura umana. Con il passare degli anni, tuttavia, ho acquisito una consapevolezza sempre maggiore della fragile tensione tra la loro apparente permanenza e la loro vulnerabilità di fondo.
Mentre lavoravo nel mio studio, nel tentativo di fare spazio, ho iniziato ad accartocciare alcune stampe scartate proprio dei paesaggi che avevo fotografato. Quello che era iniziato come un gesto inconsapevole ha gradualmente finito per riflettere il modo con cui spesso ci relazioniamo con la natura stessa, come qualcosa da usare, consumare e gettare via.
Poiché le fotografie sono stampate su carta ricavata dagli alberi, la stampa manipolata incarna una relazione diretta tra materiale, immagine e ambiente. Trasformando fisicamente la fotografia, trasformo metaforicamente il paesaggio stesso, invitando a riflettere sulle tracce che le nostre azioni lasciano dietro di sé. Mentre plasmiamo la natura, essa, a sua volta, plasma noi.
Fotografia
Ingrid Weyland è una artista argentina il cui lavoro, attraverso la fotografia e l’intervento materiale, esplora il fragile rapporto tra l’essere umano e il mondo naturale.
Nata in una famiglia di scultori e architetti, ha sviluppato fin da giovane una particolare sensibilità per la forma, lo spazio e la materia, influenze che continuano ancora oggi a caratterizzare la sua pratica artistica. Il suo lavoro prende avvio da incontri immersivi in paesaggi remoti, che diventano opere fotografiche successivamente trasformate attraverso interventi fisici per riflettere sulla fragilità ambientale, sulla memoria e sulle tracce durature dell'azione umana.
Le sue opere sono state esposte a livello internazionale e sono state riconosciute attraverso premi, mostre e pubblicazioni, tra cui il Saatchi Art for Change Prize (vincitrice per le Americhe), l’Ashurst Emerging Artist Photography Prize, l’Aesthetica Art Prize,una candidatura al Prix Pictet e la selezione tra i finalisti degli Hasselblad Masters 2026.
