France elections

France: political uncertainty and fiscal risks

Brace for a structurally higher risk premium.

The outcome of the French parliamentary election remains uncertain. Opinion polls continue to hint at a far-right victory but with a wide range of projected seats. The momentum could shift in either direction between the two rounds.

The most plausible scenarios all entail significant fiscal and financial risks, including a far-right government with or without an absolute majority, or a hung parliament resulting from a strong rise of the left. The most positive outcome of a broad centrist coalition may only materialise as a result of an institutional crisis.

Irrespective of the immediate reaction in financial markets, we expect the French (fiscal) risk premium to remain structurally higher for longer.

Please confirm your profile
Please confirm your profile to continue
Or select a different profile
Confirm your selection
By clicking on “Continue”, you acknowledge that you will be redirected to the local website you selected for services available in your region. Please consult the legal notice for detailed local legal requirements applicable to your country. Or you may pursue your current visit by clicking on the “Cancel” button.

Welcome to Pictet

Looks like you are here: {{CountryName}}. Would you like to change your location?