Oil market in 2025
Global oil demand remains weak, with a decline in growth since March 2024, primarily from Asia. The rapid pace of electrification and increased use of sustainable energy sources is reducing China's dependence on oil.
Oil supply remains abundant, with non-OPEC+ countries such as the US, Canada, and Brazil consistently increasingly their output. Indeed, OPEC+ is caught between increased production in non-member countries and its attempts to support prices by limiting its own output.
The market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2025, which implies a negative impact on oil prices. Factors such as trade wars and a strong dollar could further dampen the outlook. We anticipate the price of Brent to decline to USD65 per barrel by the end of 2025. If OPEC+ proceeds with phasing out voluntary cuts, the price could drop below USD60. Geopolitical factors remain a significant risk. A decline in Iranian oil production back to 2020 levels could partially rebalance the market.
