Weekly house view

Macroeconomics · 17 Aug 2026

0 min read

The CIO’s view of the week ahead.

The week in review

A 60-day memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran expired on Monday (17 August) without a wider deal to end their war, which had been the aim of the interim deal. While there has been a pause in strikes, talks have stalled and there is no immediate sign of a resolution, supporting oil prices.

Slightly weaker-than-expected US inflation data for July should allow the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates when it meets in September. Last week was quiet for markets; Wednesday saw the narrowest daily range this year in the S&P 500¹, which gained 0.4% on the week.

Earnings excellence is widespread, with the second quarter on track to be one of the best ever for US companies. Intel raised USD 20 billion through an upsized common stock offering to secure additional funding for its push into contract chip manufacturing. Nvidia partnered with six major financial institutions to launch compute financing platforms aimed at raising over USD 500 billion in third-party capital to support the buildout of an independent artificial intelligence (AI)-factory financing platform. This would help the AI ecosystem be less circular. Nvidia also disclosed a nearly USD 21 billion stake in SpaceX.

In Europe, companies are seeing their strongest momentum in earnings per share (EPS) since the post-Covid recovery.

Quote of the week

“The USA has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I think we will keep it,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.

Key data

The US consumer price index (CPI) edged up 0.1% in July after dropping 0.4% in June, which was the first decline in six years. Core CPI advanced 0.2% for the month. The US producer price index (PPI) was unchanged in July, coming in below the forecasted 0.2% monthly increase.

The preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 51.0, falling short of the consensus expectation of roughly 54.2 to 54.5.

US retail sales dropped 0.6% in July after Amazon moved its annual summer Prime Day event to June instead of its usual mid-July schedule.

¹Source: Pictet WM AA&MR, Thomson Reuters. Past performance, S&P 500 Composite (net 12-month return in USD): 2021, 28.7%; 2022, -18.1%; 2023, 26.3%; 2024, 25%; 2025, 17.9%.

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