Weekly house view

The week in review

Central banks turned more hawkish last week due to oil price spikes and inflation fears stemming from the Iran war, with some discussing possible interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5-3.75%, with any potential cuts remaining inflation dependent. The European Central Bank kept rates at 2% and set out the triggers for any potential hike. The Bank of England held rates but shifted to a more hawkish tone. The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank also held, with the SNB showing a willingness to intervene in currency markets.

Inflation concerns drove a surge in short- and long-term market rates. The S&P 500 fell 1.9%¹ (in USD) on the week. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rose 11 basis points to 4.39%.

The war broadened with the destruction of energy infrastructure. Close to one-fifth of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could be affected for three to five years. US President Donald Trump gave Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants. The ultimatum, issued late on Saturday, came a day after Trump said he was considering “winding down” the conflict. Tehran said it would respond to any strikes on its power plants by targeting vital infrastructure, which could damage the oil and gas supply for years to come. G7 countries may need to help secure safe passage through the Strait.

Quote of the week

When asked by a Japanese reporter why he didn’t tell allies in Europe and Asia ahead of the US attack on Iran, Trump said: “Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor, OK?”

Key data

In the US, 205,000 people filed for unemployment insurance in the week ended March 14, down 8,000 from the prior week, and 10,000 below the consensus of 215,000.

China’s government spending made its fastest start to any year since 2022. The broad money supply is also increasing, with data showing a 9% year-on-year increase in February 2026, injecting liquidity into the system.