A shift in the pace, not in the path

The incumbent grand coalition retaining a majority in Parliament is the most likely outcome of this week’s European elections, although the general feeling on Sunday night will certainly be one of a symbolic victory for the far right.

Strengthening the strategic autonomy and competitiveness of the European economy will remain at the heart of the next European Commission, but in the absence of exogenous shocks, progress on integration is likely to be limited.

A stronger than expected rise of the far right this weekend could make it harder to find working majorities in the Parliament and even undermine the proper functioning of the EU institutions.