Alexander Stubb on how the west can shape a new world order for the 21st century

Alexander Stubb believes we are currently living through an era-defining geopolitical moment, comparable to some of the most seismic events of the 20th century. “This is probably the 1919, 1945 or 1989 of our generation,” he says. “That means we can get it wrong, as they did with the League of Nations in 1919, because it was followed by World War II, or we can get it right, which they did in 1945 by establishing the liberal world order.”

The last inflection point in his list is arguably the most relevant, because the legacy of 1989 is still being felt today in Europe and around the world, a legacy that is threatening the very liberal world order he lauds. “In 1989, we all thought everyone would become western – democracy, market economy and globalisation,” he says. “But that didn’t happen. Now, it’s a fight for the hearts and minds, especially in the global south.”

Alexander served as Prime Minister of Finland from 2014 to 2015 and during his political career held some of the highest offices in Finland’s government, from Finance Minister to Foreign Minister. He was also a Member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2008 and more recently held the position of Vice President at the European Investment Bank. Suffice to say, he is deeply embedded in global and European politics (he describes himself as “an EU nerd”). So, when he says we have reached a critical turning point, it’s worth listening.

What has brought about this turning point? For Alexander, the answer is simple: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As he wrote recently in the Financial Times: “It seemed to force the rest of the world to take sides.” In the west, the effect has been a strengthening of resolve and a show of unity not seen in decades. Take Nato, for instance. One of the biggest unintended consequences of Putin’s actions, Alexander says, is that the alliance has been reborn. “It’s the revival of Nato,” he says. “It is back to its original purpose from 1948, when it was supposed to be a deterrent or a repellant to an aggressive Soviet Union.” He is confident that in the coming years, we’ll see the enlargement of Nato, not just through the accession of Finland and Sweden, but also other countries who are wary of Russia’s increasingly bellicose stance.

Alexander sees a similar shift happening in European politics. “The EU and Europe are a bit like a family,” he says. “When there’s nothing serious, you bicker about unnecessary stuff. But when you have a common enemy, the family unites.” He believes that Putin’s aggression has created a “more unified, determined and effective” European Union than he has seen throughout his nearly 30-year career.

Yet the rest of the world is far from united against Russia and this is where Alexander feels that the west is faced with a battle for hearts and minds. In March 2022, the United Nations security council called an emergency session of the general assembly; of the 193 nations represented, 141 voted to condemn Russia. This looks like a resounding show of strength – except that the 35 abstentions account for over half the world’s population. Moreover, when you look at which countries have actively participated in sanctions, the picture becomes even starker. China, India, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia – some of the largest nations in the world – have refused to apply sanctions. Clearly, then, the liberal world order that has existed since 1989 is not as universally cherished today as it once was.

For Alexander, this marks a vital geopolitical moment that the west must seize. “We need to drive a more dignified foreign policy,” he says, “which in my mind means that instead of lecturing, we listen. And instead of giving aid, we trade. The world is changing and the west needs to change with it.” Taking a step back, this shift becomes even more urgent, due to the growing importance of Africa and the global south in the 21st century. “Demography drives everything,” says Alexander. “Twenty-five percent of the world population will be from Africa in 2030; in 2040, it’ll be 30 percent and going up from there.”

It helps to take a long-term view sometimes, and Alexander is well practised. In his spare time, he is an amateur triathlete and an endurance-sports fanatic. “In international relations, you need a lot of stamina,” he says. One of the biggest challenges he finds with the modern world is that we’re pressured to react to everything immediately. “Democracy wasn’t created for that,” he says. “It was supposed to be slow and cumbersome and compromise-seeking. In sports, you can’t make those compromises, and I don’t think you can in international relations either.”