De l'attrait des actifs alternatifs dans un contexte de rendements bas

Les actifs alternatifs offrent un large éventail de profils de risque susceptibles de doper les performances des portefeuilles d'investissement traditionnels

Principaux points à retenir

  • Les actifs traditionnels semblent arriver à la fin d'un long cycle structurel de forte rentabilité, conduisants les investisseurs à explorer des classes d'actifs alternatives.
  • Les actifs alternatifs couvrent un large spectre et présentent des caractéristiques très variées, susceptibles de statisfaire une multitude d'objectifs.
  • Les private equity et le capital-risque constituent des segments alliant généralement un risque élevé et une rémunération supérieure, alors que l'immobilier et l'infrastructure offrent des rentabilités plus stables. l'or conserve quant à lui son statut d'actif de protection contre le risque de dépréciation des monnaies. 
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Fin de cycle pour les actifs traditionnels?

Les actifs traditionnels – soit les actions et les obligations – semblent arriver à la fin d’un long cycle, marqué par plusieurs décennies de très forte rentabilité. Face à des niveaux d’inflation records, alimentés par des facteurs tant cycliques que structurels, les banques centrales sont amenées à repenser les politiques ultra-accommodantes qu’elles mènent depuis des années. Le resserrement de ces politiques monétaires aura un impact sur les prévisions de rentabilité des investisseurs en obligations, qui pourraient essuyer d’importantes pertes de capital, du moins à court terme. Les investisseurs en actions sont pour leur part confrontés à un risque de normalisation des valorisations et des marges, alors que la visibilité quant à l’évolution de la croissance mondiale se détériore, pénalisant les deux composantes de l’équation risque/rendement.

Conscients des dynamiques à l’œuvre, les investisseurs institutionnels explorent les solutions qui leur permettront de préserver, voire d’améliorer, leur performance dans un contexte de moins en moins favorable aux portefeuilles traditionnels. Dans les années 1980, les fonds de dotation des universités américaines, sous l’impulsion de Yale et de Harvard, ont commencé à intégrer des actifs alternatifs à leur allocation, ce qui leur a permis de régulièrement surperformer les portefeuilles classiques 60/40. Le fonds de dotation de Yale a ainsi affiché une rentabilité de 12,4% par an en moyenne (en dollars) au cours des 10 dernières années, contre 8,0% pour un portefeuille mondial 60/40 sur la même période.

Trouver son chemin dans la jungle des actifs alternatifs

Si les actifs dits alternatifs suscitent incontestablement un intérêt accru depuis ces dernières décennies, force est de reconnaître que cette catégorie de produits est pour le moins hétérogène, puisque les classes d’actifs qui la composent présentent des caractéristiques très diverses. Les investisseurs doivent donc définir précisément ce qu’ils recherchent avant de s’aventurer dans la jungle des actifs alternatifs. Rentabilité supérieure, revenu régulier, diversification ou protection contre les risques extrêmes sont autant d’objectifs d’investissement pertinents, mais qui ne peuvent pas être atteints simultanément.

Les investisseurs en quête de risque et visant des rendements élevés se tourneront naturellement vers le private equity et le capital-risque. Grâce à l’important effet de levier associé aux transactions, le private equity mondial a en effet surperformé l’indice MSCI AC World de 3,9% par an en moyenne au cours de la dernière décennie. Sur le long terme, le segment du capital-risque a affiché une rentabilité à peine supérieure à celle du private equity, avec toutefois une envolée des performances dans les phases d’accélération de l’innovation. Et ces deux segments devraient continuer de surperformer les actions cotées au cours des 10 prochaines années (mais dans des proportions moins importantes qu’auparavant), avec une rentabilité annuelle moyenne de 9,2% en termes nominaux pour l’un comme pour l’autre.

Les investisseurs privés continuent par ailleurs de s’intéresser aux marchés de la dette, les organismes de prêt traditionnels ayant battu en retraite depuis la crise financière de 2008-2009. En contrepartie d'une faible liquidité, les investisseurs profitent donc des rendements généralement plus élevés du crédit privé par rapport aux obligations cotées, mais aussi de taux variables (une caractéristique utile dans les périodes de resserrement monétaire) et de la possibilité d’adapter les clauses de sauvegarde de manière à ce qu’elles conviennent au mieux à leur tolérance au risque. Le crédit privé devrait pour sa part afficher une rentabilité de 5,3% durant la prochaine décennie.

Aucune garantie ne peut être donnée quant à l’atteinte des objectifs s’y rapportant. Les performances passées et les prévisions ne doivent pas être considérées comme une indication ou une garantie de la performance future. De même, un objectif de rendement ne constitue en aucun cas l’assurance de rendements futurs. Les performances et les rendements sont susceptibles d’augmenter ou de diminuer sous l’effet des fluctuations des taux de change. Il est à relever que les actifs non cotés conviennent uniquement à des investisseurs de taille importante ou professionnels (i) disposant d’un horizon de placement à long terme (> 10 ans), (ii) n’ayant pas de besoins de liquidités et (iii) comprenant les risques liés à cette classe d’actifs.

Graphique 1: Actifs sous gestion par catégorie d'actifs alternatifs

Les hedge funds, quant à eux, forment une classe d’actifs très hétérogène, du fait de la vaste gamme de stratégies employées, mais qui compte aussi parmi les plus opaques, compte tenu des efforts déployés par les gérants pour conserver leur avantage concurrentiel. De manière générale, toutefois, le segment des hedge funds est dominé par le facteur actions, avec un bêta par rapport aux marchés cotés d’environ 0,5 depuis la crise financière (d’où notre prévision d'une rentabilité annuelle moyenne de 3,1% en dollars au cours des 10 prochaines années). Sachant que les hedge funds parviennent à tirer leur épingle du jeu dans les périodes de turbulences – ce qu’ils ont encore démontré en 2020-2021 –, ils constituent des instruments de diversification, qui n’offrent de l’alpha qu’aux gérants en mesure d’appliquer un processus de due diligence rigoureux.

Pour les investisseurs recherchant des rendements stables plutôt qu’un potentiel de performance exceptionnelle (mais risquée), l’immobilier et l’infrastructure peuvent s’avérer des segments intéressants à explorer. Certes, les niveaux de risque varient, de même que le potentiel de rendement, mais tous deux sont traditionnellement considérés comme des investissements «sûrs», assimilables à des rentes, offrant des cash-flows réguliers et un certain degré de protection contre l’inflation. La visibilité des revenus, relativement bonne, s’accompagne toutefois d'une faible liquidité et d’autres risques. Les infrastructures core, par exemple, comportent un risque réglementaire significatif, difficile à évaluer, qui doit être géré par le biais de la diversification.

Enfin, l'or continuera de jouer son rôle d’actif de protection contre l’inflation galopante, la dépréciation des monnaies ou les brusques retournements des actifs risqués. Cependant, la hausse des taux souverains – et en particulier du taux américain réel à 10 ans, dont nous anticipons le retour en territoire positif – devrait diminuer l’attrait de l’or, non assorti de rendement, par rapport aux obligations, raison pour laquelle nous tablons sur une rentabilité annuelle moyenne de 2,2% en dollars pour le métal jaune au cours des 10 prochaines années.

Aucune garantie ne peut être donnée quant à l’atteinte des objectifs s’y rapportant. Chaque investisseur devrait soigneusement évaluer les risques liés à un placement et ne prendre aucune décision sans considérer sa situation personnelle et s’assurer de la compatibilité de l’investissement envisagé avec ses objectifs et ses contraintes. Il est à relever que les actifs non cotés conviennent uniquement à des investisseurs de taille importante ou professionnels (i) disposant d’un horizon de placement à long terme (> 10 ans), (ii) n’ayant pas de besoins de liquidités et (iii) comprenant les risques liés à cette classe d’actifs.

Un avenir prometteur...mais tout ce qui brille n'est pas d'or

Plus opaques, moins réglementés, moins liquides et difficiles d’accès, les actifs alternatifs constituent indiscutablement une catégorie à part. Mais la diversité des classes d’actifs alternatifs offre aux investisseurs une vaste gamme d’options intéressantes pour optimiser leurs portefeuilles selon leurs objectifs individuels et leur tolérance au risque. Nous continuons par conséquent de leur prédire un bel avenir  au cours des dix prochaines années, que l’accès croissant des investisseurs ordinaires à ce type d’investissement ne fera que renforcer.

Les actifs non cotés, en particulier, pourraient continuer d’afficher de solides performances, puisque le secteur continue de se développer et que la compétitivité des marchés non cotés face aux marchés cotés en matière de financement des grands projets et des entreprises augmente. Compte tenu toutefois de l’importante dispersion des performances, la sélection des gérants joue un rôle primordial dans ce domaine. Et elle passe inévitablement par un strict processus de due diligence, autrement dit par des contrôles préalables sans faille.

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S’agissant des investissements sur les marchés émergents, il convient de noter que les pays émergents présentent une situation politique et économique nettement moins stable que celle des pays développés, et qu’ils sont ainsi exposés à un risque plus élevé de connaître des bouleversements politiques ou des revers économiques. Les performances passées ne doivent pas être considérées comme une indication ou une garantie de la performance future. Le destinataire du présent document est pleinement responsable des investissements qu’il effectue. Aucune garantie, implicite ou explicite, n’est donnée quant à la performance future. Par ailleurs, une prévision ne constitue pas un indicateur fiable de la performance future.Le contenu du présent document ne doit être lu ou utilisé que par son destinataire. Le groupe Pictet n’assume aucune responsabilité quant à son utilisation, à sa transmission ou à son exploitation. 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Publié par Banque Pictet & Cie SA, le présent document ainsi que son contenu peuvent être cités, à condition que la source soit indiquée. Tous droits réservés. Copyright 2022.Distributor: Pictet & Cie (Europe) S.A., London branch (“Pictet London Branch”)This is a marketing communication distributed by Pictet London Branch.This document sets forth neither a personal recommendation tailored to the needs, objectives and financial situation of any individual or company (investment advice as defined in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook of rules and guidance (the “FCA Handbook”)), nor the results of investment research within the meaning of the FCA Handbook. Moreover, it does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to buy, sell or subscribe to securities or other financial instruments, nor is it meant as a proposal for the conclusion of any type of agreement. Furthermore, this document should not be considered a suitability report as Pictet London Branch has not received all the necessary information on the recipient to complete its suitability assessment that covers the recipient’s knowledge and experience, tolerance to risk, investment needs and the recipient’s ability to absorb financial risk. Should its addressee decide to proceed to any transaction in relation to a financial product referred to herein, this will be in his sole responsibility, and the suitability/appropriateness of the transaction and other financial, legal and tax aspects should be assessed by an expert.Any information contained in this document is disclosed for information purposes only, and neither the producer nor the distributor can be held liable for any fluctuation of the price of the securities. No express or implied warranty is given as to future performance. The opinions expressed reflect an objective evaluation of information available to the general public, such as rates from customary sources of financial information. The market value of securities mentioned may vary on the basis of economic, financial or political changes, the remaining term, market conditions, the volatility and solvency of the issuer or the benchmark issuer. Moreover, exchange rates may have a positive or negative effect on the value, the price or the income of the securities or the related investments mentioned in this document. It is also expressly noted that forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance, while past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.You shall only take investment decisions when you fully understand the relevant financial product and the involved risks. In particular, the relevant product documentation (such as the issuance program, final terms, prospectus, simplified prospectus and key (investor) information document), as well as Appendix 4: Risk Warnings Relating to Trading in Financial Instruments of the Terms and Conditions of Pictet London Branch, shall be read. Structured products are complex financial products and involve a high degree of risk. The value of structured products depends not only on the performance of the underlying asset(s), but also on the credit rating of the issuer. Furthermore, the investor is exposed to the risk of default of the issuer/guarantor.In respect of any product documentation, including key information documents of Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products (“KIDs”) and key investor information documents of Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (“KIIDs”), please note that these may change without notice. You should therefore ensure that you review the latest version of them prior to confirming to Pictet London your decision to invest. If you have been provided with a link to access the respective KID/KIID/other product document, you should therefore click on the link immediately before confirming to Pictet London Branch your decision to invest, in order to review the most recent version of the respective KID/KIID/other product document. If you have not been provided with a link to access the relevant document, or if you are in any doubt as to what the latest version of the respective KID/KIID/other product document is, or where it can be found, please ask your usual Pictet London Branch contact.Pictet London Branch is not the manufacturer of the product(s) and the KID/KIID/other product document is provided by a third party. The KID/KIID/other product document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Pictet London Branch does not make any guarantee or warranty as to the correctness and accuracy of the data contained in the KID/KIID/other product document. Pictet London Branch may not be held liable for an investment decision or other transaction made based on reliance on, or use of, the data contained in the KID/KIID/other product document.By subscribing to the product(s) proposed herein, you acknowledge that you have (i) received, in good time, read and understood any relevant documentation linked to the product(s), including, as the case may be, the respective KID/KIID/other product document; (ii) taken note of the product(s) restrictions; and (iii) meet the applicable subjective and objective eligibility conditions to invest in the product(s).Pictet London Branch may, if necessary, rely on these acknowledgements and receive your orders, to transmit them to another professional, or to execute them, according to the relevant clauses of your mandate, as well as the Terms and Conditions of Pictet London Branch.The content of this document shall only be read and/or used by its addressee. Any form of reproduction, copying, disclosure, modification and/or publication in any form or by any means whatsoever is not permitted without the prior written consent of Pictet London Branch and no liability whatsoever will be incurred by Pictet London Branch. The addressee of this document agrees to comply with the applicable laws and regulations in the jurisdictions where they use the information provided in this document.Pictet London Branch is a branch of Pictet & Cie (Europe) S.A.. Pictet & Cie (Europe) S.A. is a société anonyme (public limited liability company) incorporated in Luxembourg and registered with the Luxembourg Registre de Commerce et des Sociétés (RCS no. B32060). Its head office is at 15A, avenue J.F. Kennedy, L-2016 Luxembourg. Pictet London Branch is registered as a UK establishment with Companies House (establishment number BR016925) and its UK establishment office address is Stratton House 6th Floor, London, 5 Stratton Street, W1J 8LA.
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The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer, an invitation to offer or solicitation to buy, sell or subscribe for any securities, commodities, derivatives, (in respect of Singapore only) futures, or other financial instruments (collectively referred to as “Investments”) or to enter into any legal relations, nor as advice or recommendation with respect to any Investments. This document is intended for general circulation and it is not directed at any particular person. This document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and/or the particular needs of any recipient of this document. Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any Investments or adopting any strategies discussed in this document, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of the investor, before making a commitment to invest.BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch has not taken any steps to ensure that the Investments referred to in this document are suitable for any particular investor, and accepts no fiduciary duties to any investor in this regard, except as required by applicable laws and regulations. Furthermore, BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch makes no representations and gives no advice concerning the appropriate accounting treatment or possible tax consequences of any Investment. Any investor interested in buying or making any Investment should conduct its own investigation and analysis of the Investment and consult with its own professional adviser(s) as to any Investment including the risks involved.This document is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. The value and income of any Investment mentioned in this document may fall as well rise. The market value may be affected by, amongst other things, changes in economic, financial, political factors, time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Furthermore, foreign currency rates of exchange may have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of any Investment mentioned in this document.  Accordingly, investors must be willing and able to assume all risks and may receive back less than originally invested.Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch regarding future performance.This document does not constitute the investment policy of BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch, or an investment recommendation, and merely contains the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Furthermore, the information, opinions and estimates expressed herein reflect a judgment at its original date of publication and are subject to change without notice and without any obligation on BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch to update any of them.  BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch may have issued or distributed other reports or documents that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this document.While the information and opinions presented herein are from sources believed to be reliable, BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch is not able to, and do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of or reliance on this document presented for information purposes only. BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch reserves the right to act upon or use any of the information in this document at any time, including before its publication herein.BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch and its affiliates (or employees thereof) may or may not have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, or otherwise have interest in, any of the Investments mentioned herein, and may or may not have relationships with the issuers of or entities connected with Investments mentioned in this document. BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch and their affiliates (or employees thereof) may act inconsistently with the information and/or opinions presented in this document.The information used to prepare this document and/or any part of such information, may have been provided or circulated to employees and/or one or more clients of BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch before this document was received by you and such information may have been acted upon by such recipients or by BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch.This document is provided solely for the information of the intended recipient only and should not be reproduced, published, circulated or disclosed in whole or in part to any other person without the prior written consent of BPCAL/Pictet HK Branch.  SingaporeThis document is not directed to, or intended for distribution, publication to or use by, persons who are not accredited investors, expert investors or institutional investors as defined in section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289 of Singapore) (“SFA”) or any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject BPCAL and any of its affiliates or related corporations to any prospectus or registration requirements.
BPCAL is a wholesale bank regulated by the  Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”) under the Banking Act Cap. 50 of Singapore, an exempt financial adviser under the Financial Advisers Act Cap. 110 of Singapore (“FAA”) and an exempt capital markets licence holder under the SFA. Please contact BPCAL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this document. Hong KongThis document is not directed to, or intended for distribution, publication to or use by, persons who are not “professional investors” within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) and any rules made thereunder (the “SFO”) or any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject Pictet HK Branch and any of its affiliates or related corporations to any prospectus or registration requirements. If you do not want Pictet HK Branch to use your personal information for marketing purposes, you can request Pictet HK Branch to stop doing so without incurring any charge to you. In distributing investment products as agents for third party service providers, Pictet HK Branch is an agent of the third party service provider and the product is a product of the third party service provider but not Pictet HK Branch. In respect of an eligible dispute (as defined in the Terms of Reference for the Financial Dispute Resolution Centre in relation to the Financial Dispute Resolution Scheme) arising between Pictet HK Branch and you out of the selling process or processing of the related transaction, Pictet HK Branch is required to enter into a Financial Dispute Resolution Scheme process with you; however any dispute over the contractual terms of the product should be resolved between directly the third party service provider and you.Banque Pictet & Cie SA is a limited liability company incorporated in Switzerland. It is an authorized institution within the meaning of the Banking Ordinance and a registered institution (CE No.: BMG891) under the SFO carrying on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities) and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities. The registered address of Pictet HK Branch is 9/F., Chater House, 8 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong.Warning: The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.  You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the offer.  If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. Please contact Pictet HK Branch in Hong Kong in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this document. Distributor: Pictet Bank & Trust Limited, where registered office is located at Building 1, Bayside Executive Park, West Bay Street & Blake Road, Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas.The document is not directed to, or intended for distribution or publication to or use by persons who are not Accredited Investors (as defined in the Securities Industry Regulations, 2012) and subject to the conditions set forth in the Securities Industry Regulations, 2012 or to any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject Pictet Bank & Trust Limited to any prospectus or registration requirements. Pictet Bank & Trust Limited is incorporated in The Bahamas with limited liability. It is a bank and trust company that is licensed in accordance with the Banks and Trust Companies’ Regulation Act and is regulated by the Central Bank of The Bahamas.  Additionally, Pictet Bank & Trust Limited is registered with the Securities Commission of The Bahamas as a Broker Dealer II and is approved to (i) Deal in Securities 1.(a) & (c ); (ii) Arrange Deals in securities; (iii) Manage Securities ; (iv) Advise on Securities. 
Warning: The content of this document has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in The Bahamas.   You are, therefore, advised to exercise caution when processing the information contained herein. If you are in any doubt about any of the content of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.

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