Les décisions d'investissement à long terme doivent pouvoir s'appuyer sur une expérience approfondie et une recherche rigoureuse de modèles fiables. c'est à cette exigence fondamentale qu'Horizon s'efforce de répondre.
Editorial par Christophe Donay et César Pérez Ruiz
Responsable de la stratégie et de l'allocation
César Pérez Ruiz
Chief Investment Officer
Responsable des investissements
Cette année marque la dixième édition d’Horizon, initiative qui présente notre analyse des dynamiques structurelles dictant l’évolution de l'économie mondiale et des marchés financiers. Comme toujours, nos prévisions de rentabilité à 10 ans pour un vaste éventail de classes d’actifs sur la base de ces dynamiques reste la ‘pièce maîtresse’ d’Horizon.
Plusieurs facteurs importants nous semblent appelés à exercer un impact croissant sur l’économie et sur les marchés au cours de la prochaine décennie. Le retour de l’Etat interventionniste, par exemple, en est un. Ce thème est pris en compte dans les prévisions à long terme exposées dans cette édition et sert de base à notre analyse d’une autre question de taille: les externalités négatives générées par les systèmes économiques—en particulier le changement climatique (et les réponses qui y sont apportées).
Autre thème abordé, le risque croissant d’un changement de régime d’inflation. A cet égard, notre scénario central prévoit une transition vers une inflation structurelle plus élevée dans la plupart des économies développées et émergentes.
Ce que nous appelons «la Grande divergence» est aussi sous la loupe dans cette édition d’Horizon. Notre analyse montre que l’endettement nécessaire pour soutenir la croissance, même a minima, ne cesse d’augmenter. Or, cet écart entre l’augmentation de la dette et l’atonie de la croissance est source d’instabilité, tant financière qu’économique.
Enfin, alors que la vague d’innovation technologique en cours arrive à maturité, le fléchissement des gains qui en sont issus annonce une intensification des pressions inflationnistes. Et le reflux de la vague actuelle pourrait accélérer la baisse des rentabilités à long terme des actifs cotés au cours des 10 années à venir.
Si, comme nous pensons, le retour d’une inflation structurelle plus élevée se concrétise, les investisseurs seront contraints à réévaluer la rentabilité des actifs qu’ils détiennent. Pendant de nombreuses années, distinguer les rendements nominaux des rendements réels paraissait superflu compte tenu de la quasi-disparition de l’inflation. Mais la donne est en train de changer, raison pour laquelle nous affichons cette année nos prévisions de rentabilités en termes nominaux et réels.
Découvrez nos thèmes à long terme
Le retour de l'Etat interventionniste
Une nouvelle ère pour l'inflation
En attendant la prochaine vague d'innovation
Quelle approche face aux actifs traditionnels?
De l'attrait des actifs alternatifs dans un contexte de rendement bas
Le futur des monnaies
l'investissement reponsable devient la norme
Au-delà des allocations classiques 60/40
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De l’attrait des actifs alternatifs dans un contexte de rendements bas
China’s ‘Big Government’ tradition and its future
Le retour de l’Etat interventionniste
Is a return to 1970s-style inflation on the cards?
Une nouvelle ère pour l'inflation
Investors need to face the consequences of disruptive innovation Read now
En attendant la prochaine vague d'innovation
Convertible bonds: a brief introduction
Towards climate-aware asset allocations
L’investissement responsable devient la norme
Chinese equities: a leap of faith
The uncertain promise of cryptocurrencies
Le futur des monnaies
Endowment-style investing explained
The stock-Bond correlation
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