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Perspectives - Special edition 2012

23 dicembre 2011

Non-normal is the new normal

The world has changed dramatically since 2008. The initial financial crisis, rooted in housing-market bubbles, especially in the US, and all the toxic assets acquired lock, stock and barrel primarily by the world’s leading investment banks, degenerated into a debilitating crisis of confidence worldwide with its epicentre in Europe: distrust initially of the banks, then of eurozone politicians who have been far too slow to come up with permanent and credible solutions to deal with the unsustainable levels of debt run up by certain member states.

 

The worsening economic and political situation in Greece is etched deeply into everyone’s psyche, as is the speed at which the problems spread to other peripheral eurozone states. Financial markets have lost confidence in a steadily lengthening list of countries, including some regarded until now as among the safest havens in the world. At the time of writing, France is in danger of being stripped of its triple-A status and even Germany, for the first time in the modern era, has run into problems persuading investors to buy its 10-year Bunds, a turn of events that would have been unthinkable not all that long ago.

Against the backdrop of a double decoupling in growth and inflation between economies in the developed and emerging worlds, Pictet’s Wealth Management Investment Committee met on 12-13 October, bringing together our own in-house investment experts with external specialists of world renown, to spend time reappraising and thoroughly analysing the whole situation and outlook. The key points and conclusions from our discussions have been presented in this inaugural Special Edition issue of Perspectives.

 

We hope that this new annual publication will provide relevant and instructive insights into the global economic and financial situation and outlook which, we are quite sure, will have a major bearing on your long-term investment decisions.

Philippe Bertherat
Partner, Pictet & Cie