Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 17.03.2010 09:37:01 |
| This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| The ZEW current conditions index came out at -51.9 in March, better than the -54.8 in February, while the ZEW economic sentiment index reading was 44.5, down from 45.1 previously. Inflation in the Eurozone rose by 0.3% from January to February and by 0.9% from one year before. Inflation excluding food and energy was up 0.3% month-on-month and 0.8% from one year before. The US real estate market slumped in February with new housing permits down by 1.6% to 612,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, and new housing starts down 0.3% to 573,000 units. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 1.0543 | -0.0058 | 1.0525 | 1.0625 |
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Daily chart
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1.0495 | 1.0655 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.0475 | 1.0700 | |||
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Comments The Fed decided to leave its interest rates on hold at the much-awaited FOMC meeting yesterday. The US central bank would like to exit the current situation and be able to raise rates, but the most recent indicators concerning the housing market (see above) are not reassuring enough to allow it to take action. The dollar remained a little soft against the Swiss franc and the USD/CHF fell from 1.0625 to 1.0535. Our expected trading range for today is 1.0500-1.0600. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.3777 | 0.0085 | 1.3715 | 1.3795 |
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Daily chart
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1.3700 | 1.3840 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.3680 | 1.3870 | |||
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Comments Greece's debt crisis remains at the forefront of EU ministers' statements about the lack of measures in place to keep the finances of certain countries under control. Nevertheless, agency ratings and the outlook for Greece are not as negative as one might have expected. The leading sentiment index in Germany came out as expected, as did inflation in Europe. The EUR/USD has advanced from 1.3657 to 1.3787 since yesterday morning and the pair is expected to trade between 1.3700 and 1.3850 today. |
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| USD/JPY | 90.56 | 0.47 | 89.95 | 90.85 |
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Daily chart
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89.60 | 91.10 | |||
| Short-term chart |
89.25 | 91.50 | |||
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Comments Overnight, the Bank of Japan left its interest rates on hold at 0.10%. Nothing new to report on the USD/JPY pair or on the EUR/JPY cross, which traded in ranges between 90.04 and 90.73, and 123.29 and 124.91, respectively. We are awaiting publication of the Reuters Tankan diffusion index. We staying with our previous view and expect the 90.00 mark to remain the pivot point of any movements on the pair. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.4523 | 0.0010 | 1.4505 | 1.4560 |
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Daily chart
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1.4440 | 1.4585 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.4395 | 1.4600 | |||
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Comments The EUR/CHF cross has settled just above 1.4500, with a low at 1.4508 and a high at 1.4534. All eyes are still on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) which has still not intervened on the cross. And yet, at its meeting last week, the SNB stated that it intended to prevent the franc from appreciating too rapidly against the single currency. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.5215 | 0.0170 | 1.5175 | 1.5260 |
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Daily chart
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1.5150 | 1.5300 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.5110 | 1.5345 | |||
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Comments After the sharp fall recorded on Monday, the Cable soared yesterday, advancing from 1.4979 to 1.5260. Like its US counterpart, the UK housing market is showing signs of weakness. However, the news had no impact on sterling. Today, we are awaiting publication of UK unemployment data. Our expected trading range for today is 1.5100-1.5300. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 82.13 | 2.40 | Daily chart |
| Platinum | 1622.00 | -0.50 | Daily chart |
| Gold | 1127.05 | 14.65 | Daily chart |
| Silver | 17.45 | 0.27 | Daily chart |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 09:30 | ILO UNEMPLOYMENT RATE | UK | JAN | 7.90% | 7.80% |
| 10:00 | LABOUR COST Y/Y | EMU | Q4 | 3.2% | |
| 12:30 | PPI INFLATION Y/Y NSA | USA | FEB | 4.90% | 4.60% |
| 13:30 | PRODUCER PRICES M/M | USA | FEB | -0.20% | 1.40% |
