Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 16.03.2010 09:54:35 |
| This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| The OPEC meeting in Vienna this week is not expected to lead to any change in production quotas. In a letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, 130 US lawmakers urge the Administration to take measures against what they call exchange rate manipulations on the part of China. Switzerland’s Producer/Import Price index for February slipped 0.3% from the previous month and was down 1.0% from one year before. Unemployment rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter from the third and by 2.0% from a year ago. In the USA, the New York Fed manufacturing index fell to 22.86 from 24.91 in February. Capital outflows in the US amounted to 33.4 billion in January, in stark contrast to the 53.6 billion in inflows registered in December. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 1.0601 | 0.0005 | 1.0585 | 1.0650 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.0565 | 1.0675 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.0515 | 1.0695 | |||
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Comments Even though industrial production rose by 0.1% in February and capacity utilisation improved to 72.7%, neither figure was enough to have any real impact on the dollar exchange rate. The dollar has been trading between 1.0583 and 1.0641 in the past 24 hours. The Fed will hold its monetary policy meeting tonight, but we do not expect it to raise interest rates. The central bank's plans for exiting its current monetary policy should, however, become more of an issue as the US economy recovers. Our expected trading range for today is 1.0550-1.0700. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.3692 | -0.0045 | 1.3640 | 1.3700 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.3620 | 1.3730 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.3575 | 1.3760 | |||
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Comments According to certain members of the ECB, inflation in Europe is expected to be a little over 1% in 2010, and GDP growth should be less than 1% in 2010. Greece has not asked for financial assistance according to Germany’s finance minister, saying instead that it wanted to find a way out of the current crisis on its own. The euro’s gains against the dollar last Friday were entirely wiped out in Monday’s session alone, with the EUR/USD retreating from 1.3760 to 1.3640. The German ZEW and eurozone inflation will be the two big macro figures to watch today. We're calling for a trading range between 1.3600 and 1.3750. |
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| USD/JPY | 90.09 | -0.50 | 89.85 | 90.55 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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89.65 | 91.10 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
89.25 | 91.50 | |||
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Comments The Japanese government has revised its growth forecast upward for the first time since July 2009. The Bank of Japan’s struggle with deflation will go on for some time to come. The USD/JPY pair has barely moved over the past 24 hours and has traded between a low at 89.99 and a high at 90.80. In contrast, the EUR/JPY cross retreated from 124.96 to 123.25. The downturn on stockmarkets is the reason for the yen gaining ground. The pair has moved close to the pivot point at 90.00 we have been giving for some time and we do not expect it to stray from it in the hours to come. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.4513 | -0.0044 | 1.4505 | 1.4560 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.4440 | 1.4585 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.4395 | 1.4600 | |||
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Comments Yesterday, the Swiss franc appreciated further against the single currency, advancing as it did from 1.4509 to a high at 1.4564. The last time the EUR/CHF cross was this low was in October 2008. The euro’s weakness appears to be due to the question marks being raised about the rescue package for Greece The markets do not believe that the financial aid that will be provided to Greece will be sufficient to erase the country's public debt. The question on everybody’s lips is, how far will the Swiss National Bank (SNB) allow the Swissie to appreciate against the euro? An intervention by the SNB is still on the cards. Today’s trading range is 1.4475-1.4625. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.5045 | -0.0116 | 1.5020 | 1.5085 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.5005 | 1.5125 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.4945 | 1.5160 | |||
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Comments The Cable has been very volatile, trading in a range between 1.5020 and 1.5206. Sterling plummeted by almost 1% early in the day on the back of the questions being raised about the health of the UK's public finances and the political outlook. This afternoon in the US, we are awaiting publication of the housing market figures as well as the outcome of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Our expected trading range for today is 1.5000-1.5150. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 79.73 | -1.01 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Platinum | 1622.50 | 19.00 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Gold | 1112.40 | 6.85 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Silver | 17.18 | 0.16 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 10:00 | ZEW CURRENT CONDITIONS | GER | MAR | -52.0 | -54.8 |
| 10:00 | ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT | GER | MAR | 43.7 | 45.1 |
| 10:00 | INFLATION,FINAL M/M | EMU | FEB | 0.30% | -0.80% |
| 10:00 | INFLATION FINAL, Y/Y | EMU | FEB | 0.90% | 1.00% |
| 12:30 | BUILDING PERMITS : NUMBER | USA | FEB | 0.610M | 0.622M |
| 12:30 | BUILD PERMITS . CHANGE M/M | USA | FEB | -4.70% | |
| 12:30 | HOUSE STARTS M/M: CHANGE | USA | FEB | 2.80% | |
| 12:30 | HOUSING STARTS NUMBER M/M | USA | FEB | 0.570M | 0.591M |
| 18:15 | FOMC RATE DECISION | USA | MAR | 0.25% | |
