Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 08.07.2008 10:18:15 |
| This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| German industrial output slipped by a staggering 2.4% in May from the previous month. The Sentix Eurozone investor sentiment index reading for July came out at -9.3, down sharply from +5.2 in June. UK industrial output dropped off sharply between April and May, falling by 0.8%, and by 1.6% from one year before, while manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in the same period and by -0.8% year-on-year. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 1.0270 | -0.0041 | 1.0225 | 1.0305 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.0195 | 1.0330 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.0165 | 1.0360 | |||
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Comments Trading on forex markets was rather calm yesterday and the dollar posted gains against almost all the major currencies. The greenback rose from 1.0249 to 1.0342 against the Swiss francs after European equity markets ticked higher, but then had to give up some of its previous gains later in the day on rumours of more sub-prime losses in the financial sector. By the end of the session, the dollar had returned to 1.0227. Today we will know the latest US existing home sales in the US, which should give us a better sense of how the struggling US housing sector and the ongoing sub-prime crisis can be expected to affect any number of financial institutions. Our expected trading range for today is 1.0200-1.0350. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.5696 | 0.0064 | 1.5670 | 1.5755 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.5645 | 1.5780 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.5620 | 1.5795 | |||
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Comments The euro-dollar pair has returned to the 1.5200-1.5750 range where it is consolidating after breaking out of its previous range last week following the ECB’s 25 bp rates hike. The EUR/USD slipped from 1.5705 to 1.5612 on the back of lower German industrial output, lower investor sentiment for the 15-country Euro-zone and European equity markets on the rise again. In overnight trading, the dollar lost territory against the single currency just as it did against the Swiss franc with the EUR/USD climbing back to 1.5753. With no new economic figures scheduled for publication today, the pair should fluctuate between 1.5625 and 1.5775. |
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| USD/JPY | 106.98 | -0.32 | 106.85 | 107.40 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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106.55 | 107.60 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
106.20 | 107.75 | |||
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Comments In Japan, the number of business failures in June rose by 2.63% month-on-month and 11.7% year-on-year. The yen has suffered over the past 24 hours, with the USD/JPY pair advancing from 106.67 to 107.75 and the EUR/JPY pair rising from 167.14 to 168.61. The latest downturn of the Japanese currency can be explained by the solid showing by European stockmarkets (the yen has strengthened slightly this morning on the back of the slight downturn on stockmarkets overnight). We had forecast a trading range of 105.00-107.50 for this week and we have already tested the upper reaches of the range, albeit without managing to make a clear breach of the resistances. We will be trying to make something happen within the 106.50-107.50 range for the next 24 hours. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.6119 | 0.0000 | 1.6095 | 1.6165 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.6075 | 1.6200 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.6040 | 1.6220 | |||
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Comments The Swiss franc did not succeed in gaining any ground against the euro, in spite of the downturn in German industrial output in May (see above). The EUR/CHF cross advanced from 1.6077 to 1.6164, reaching the middle of our consolidation trading range of 1.6050-1.6250, which we have been mentioning for some time. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.9736 | -0.0017 | 1.9710 | 1.9775 |
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Ver gráfico (daily)
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1.9670 | 1.9790 | |||
| Ver gráfico (short-term) |
1.9650 | 1.9830 | |||
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Comments Faltering industrial and manufacturing output figures confirmed our negative view on the economic outlook for the United Kingdom. The Cable plummeted from 1.9828 to 1.9650, returning to its previous trading range of 1.9500-1.9750 which it had broken out of last week. Our recommendations issued on 26 June 2008 to sell the Cable at 1.9750 and on 27 June 2008 to sell it at 1.9900 have finally proved correct and we are waiting for the Cable to return to 1.9500 to cover our short positions. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 142.33 | -1.32 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Platinum | 1986.50 | -4.50 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Gold | 926.50 | 2.50 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Silver | 17.78 | -0.07 | Ver gráfico (daily) |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 15:00 | PENDING HOME SALES INDEX | USA | MAY | 88.2 | |
| 15:00 | PENDING HOME SALES % CHANGE | USA | MAY | -2.80% | 6.30% |
| 15:00 | WHOLESALE INVENTORIES | USA | MAY | 0.70% | 1.30% |
| 15:00 | WHOLESALE SALES | USA | MAY | 1.40% | |
