Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 18.07.2008 09:50:51 |
| This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| The Swiss ZEW economic expectations index declined to -76.9 points in July from -63.8 points in June. After a gloomy start to the week, with rumours of bankruptcies hanging over several financial establishments, the clouds have cleared somewhat with a sharp rebound on the stockmarkets and some baffling figures coming out of the US, namely, housing starts up 9.1% between May and June to an annualised pace of 1.066 mn units and building permits up 11.6% on the month to an annualised 1.091 mn units. The number of first-time claims for state unemployment benefits did, however, edge up to 366,000 from 348,000 the previous week. Oil prices have dipped sharply over the past week, easing from USD 147.27 a barrel on 11 July to USD 129.00 yesterday evening. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 1.0188 | 0.0043 | 1.0140 | 1.0260 |
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Daily chart
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1.0100 | 1.0280 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.0060 | 1.0305 | |||
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Comments As we head into the weekend, we are wondering just what to make of recent developments on the markets. Stockmarkets around the world have posted substantial gains, the greenback has bounced back somewhat, and the latest US housing market figures broke all records... We had predicted a trading range of 1.0000-1.0300 for the week, and the pair has fluctuated between 1.0009 and 1.0258. It also now looks unlikely that we will see any breakout from this range before next week. The USD has been boosted in recent sessions by falling oil prices in the wake of the announcement that the US expects its consumption of oil to drop in future. We expect to trade in a range of 1.0150-1.0250 between now and the weekend. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.5865 | 0.0005 | 1.5800 | 1.5895 |
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Daily chart
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1.5780 | 1.5920 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.5760 | 1.5950 | |||
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Comments There has not been a great deal of movement on the EUR/USD over the past few hours, with the pair trading between a low of 1.5785 and a high of 1.5893. With yesterday’s robust housing-market figures in the US and stockmarkets posting strong gains, we might have expected to see the pair ease back to around the 1.5750 mark. Instead, though, the advances of both the EUR/CHF and the EUR/JPY have helped to keep the EUR/USD at the top of its trading range. We are staying with a range of 1.5775-1.5925 on this last trading day of the week. |
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| USD/JPY | 106.10 | 1.18 | 105.85 | 106.80 |
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Daily chart
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105.40 | 107.10 | |||
| Short-term chart |
105.05 | 107.30 | |||
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Comments The yen has taken a nosedive on the forex markets, with the USD/JPY advancing from 104.76 to 107.08 (the biggest advance in three months). The EUR/JPY cross followed suit, surging from 166.02 to 169.10. Once again, the movements of the different currencies were influenced by the trend on the stockmarkets. We will be playing a trading range of 105.50-106.50 as we head into the weekend. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.6166 | 0.0081 | 1.6125 | 1.6215 |
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Daily chart
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1.6105 | 1.6240 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.6080 | 1.6250 | |||
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Comments The Swiss franc and the yen are in the same boat. The Swissie took a beating on the forex markets, with the EUR/CHF cross advancing from 1.6083 to 1.6213. No major economic figures are scheduled for publication today, and we expect to end the week in the middle of our favoured trading range of 1.6050-1.6250. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.9989 | -0.0028 | 1.9925 | 2.0010 |
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Daily chart
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1.9905 | 2.0040 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.9880 | 2.0080 | |||
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Comments The Cable has settled close to the 2.0000 mark (with a low at 1.9944 and a high at 2.0072). With no new economic data scheduled for release today, the main players should get a chance to catch their breath ahead of next week. Our expected trading range for today is 1.9900-2.0100. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 130.19 | -4.70 | Daily chart |
| Platinum | 1845.50 | -85.00 | Daily chart |
| Gold | 958.90 | -5.10 | Daily chart |
| Silver | 18.50 | -0.33 | Daily chart |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 09:30 | PSNB M/M GBP | UK | JUN | 7.40B | 11.00B |
| 09:30 | PSNCR M/M GBP | UK | JUN | 12.60B | 10.99B |
| 10:00 | EUROSTAT TRADE EUR | EMU | MAY | -1.0B | 2.3B |
