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PAM - Insight Japan - November 2011

16 November 2011

There and back againThe Japanese market has fallen close to the post-Lehman low. Once again TOPIX is priced lower than its book value. Foreign economic woes (Eurozone, China), corporate scandals and ineffectual governments have all played their part in the market’s decline – but Japanese governments are generally ineffectual, corporate behaviour actually continues to improve, Europe isn’t as important as people think and China looks better. And the market is cheap. Again.

 


 

Unlike in the West, the stock market in Japan has been fairly restrained. Since mid July, the S&P 500 has had a bear market (-20 per cent) and a bull market (+20 per cent), while European markets such as the German DAX fell -33 per cent to late September followed by +30 per cent to late October. In Japan, the TOPIX index fell 14 per cent in late July but has then just moved sideways through a narrow ±3.5 per cent range. There has been no bounce from the (short-term?) relief at the (apparent) resolution of the European debt crisis, nor even at the stronger economic data coming from the US. (...)

 

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