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Global Emerging Markets Quarterly - 4Q 2010

18 January 2011

Will inflation driven policy tightening derail Asian equities ?

In sharp contrast to the slow growth and fiscal strain that characterises the developed world’s economic recovery, Asia finds itself in a full-blown reflationary upswing. Excessive liquidity, imported inflation and strong capital flows are likely to continue to be the hallmarks of the regional expansion for the foreseeable future and a generalised tightening of monetary policies is now underway.

 

  

However, an unwillingness to see local currency appreciation against the US dollar and China’s renminbi has the capacity to undermine the growing fight against inflation. As a consequence, Pictet Asset Management believe portfolios should build in a degree of protection against inflation and interest rate rises over the coming months, while remaining alert to the possibility that such pressures remain stickier than consensus estimates assume. (...)

 

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