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Global Emerging Markets Quarterly - 4Q 2009

20 January 2010

Asia the first to tighten monetary policy?

Babble about a Chinese market bubble has lately bordered on the cacophonous. Indeed, the first signs of inflation in some emerging countries are now showing, particularly in China. So Asia, which last year led the global economic recovery, is likely to tighten rates first. Nonetheless, we remain positive on the region in general.

 

China has already begun tightening as first signs of overheating emerge

 

Last year, China's aggressive fiscal stimulus resulted in an acceleration of its industrial production, higher consumer spending and rapidly rising property prices. Recently, Chinese export demand, as a result of the recent upturn in developed country growth, has also recovered substantially. 

 

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