Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 09.02.2012 09:15:29 |
This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| Unemployment in Switzerland edged up from 3.3% to 3.4% in January. Consumer confidence in Switzerland improved slightly in January, up to -19 from -24 in October, as measured by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs’ (SECO) household survey. Producer prices in China rose 0.7% year-on-year in January, while consumer prices were up 4.5% over the same period. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 0.9101 | -0.0015 | 0.9105 | 0.9160 |
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Daily chart
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0.9100 | 0.9180 | |||
| Short-term chart |
0.9065 | 0.9230 | |||
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Comments It was a rather uneventful day on forex markets yesterday as the USD/CHF stayed wedged between 0.9107 and 0.9149 with very little volatility. The market is stalled pending the upcoming monetary policy meetings of the ECB and Bank of England and an agreement in the Greek debt talks. We reiterate our range between 0.9075 and 0.9200 for today. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.3299 | 0.0022 | 1.3215 | 1.3310 |
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Daily chart
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1.3190 | 1.3335 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.3165 | 1.3390 | |||
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Comments The EUR/USD continued to trade above the top of the range that we had indicated for this week and fluctuated between 1.3216 and 1.3299. Today's ECB meeting is unlikely to result in any change in interest rates, as one has already been pencilled in for next month. However, it will be interesting to hear the post-meeting comments of ECB President Mario Draghi. For today’s session, our expected trading range is 1.3175-1.3325. |
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| USD/JPY | 77.19 | 0.13 | 76.95 | 77.30 |
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Daily chart
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76.70 | 77.50 | |||
| Short-term chart |
76.50 | 77.65 | |||
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Comments Overseas investors bought a net JPY 64.3 billion worth of Japanese shares and a net JPY 1022.1 billion worth of Japanese bonds last week. Japanese machinery orders rose +6.3% month-on-month in December. Consumer confidence rose sharply in January to reach 40. The USD/JPY has traded between 76.71 and 77.23 and the EUR/JPY between 101.67 and 102.45. Between now and the end of the week, we are expecting the USD/JPY to trade between 76.75 and 77.50 and the EUR/JPY between 101.50 and 103.00. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.2104 | 0.0000 | 1.2070 | 1.2125 |
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Daily chart
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1.2055 | 1.2135 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.2025 | 1.2150 | |||
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Comments The EUR/CHF cross traded above 1.2100 throughout most of the session yesterday and registered a high of 1.2128 before retreating to 1.2090 after the ECB said it had not yet decided on whether to contribute to the Greek debt restructuring deal. Today’s ECB meeting will set the tone for the next 24 hours. Our expected trading range for this session is 1.2075-1.2125. From a technical view, the long-term downtrend could be broken if we see a break above 1.2125 today. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.5838 | -0.0073 | 1.5790 | 1.5835 |
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Daily chart
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1.5750 | 1.5870 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.5695 | 1.5930 | |||
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Comments Today’s session should be an interesting one for sterling, with the publication of the latest UK industrial and manufacturing output figures and the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on the agenda. As far as the latter is concerned, the committee is likely to increase the amount set aside for QE from its current level of GBP 275 billion. Over the past 24 hours, the Cable has retreated from 1.5929 to 1.5797, while the EUR/GBP cross has climbed from 0.8330 to 0.8402. Our expected trading ranges for today’s session are 1.5750-1.5900 on the GBP/USD and 0.8325-0.8425 on the EUR/GBP. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 99.18 | -0.02 | Daily chart |
| Platinum | 1661.00 | 5.75 | Daily chart |
| Gold | 1738.25 | -10.76 | Daily chart |
| Silver | 34.03 | -0.21 | Daily chart |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 07:45 | SECO CONSUMER CONFIDENCE | SWI | JAN | -22 | -24 |
| 10:30 | INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M | UK | DEC | 0.2% | -0.6% |
| 10:30 | MANUFACT. PRODUCTION M/M | UK | DEC | 0.2% | -0.2% |
| 10:30 | TRADE BALANCE M/M | UK | DEC | -£2700 | -£2566 |
| 13:00 | BOE ASSET PURCHASE TARGET | UK | FEB | 325B | 275B |
| 13:00 | BOE ANNOUNCES RATES | UK | FEB | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| 13:45 | ECB ANNOUNCES RATES | ECB | FEB | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| 14:30 | INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS | USA | 370K | 367K | |
| 15:45 | BLOOMBERG CONS. CONF. | USA | FEB | -44.8 | |
