Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 12.03.2010 09:42:08 |
| This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| The SNB kept its target band for the 3-month Swiss franc LIBOR at 0.00-0.75%. The central bank also revised upwards its real GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 1.5% from the 0.5%-1% expansion predicted in December. The number of Americans filing first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 462,000 from 468,000 the previous week. The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to USD 37.29 bn in January from USD 39.90 bn in December 2009, with imports down 1.7% and exports down 0.3%. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 1.0655 | -0.0060 | 1.0650 | 1.0735 |
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Daily chart
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1.0630 | 1.0755 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.0600 | 1.0800 | |||
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Comments Yesterday’s session was an uneventful one, with the USD/CHF trading between 1.0683 and 1.0731. The outcome of yesterday’s SNB meeting did nothing to change the value of the CHF against the other majors. The same was true for the US trade deficit, which narrowed more than had been forecast, but this had no major bearing on the USD's movements. The latest US retail sales figures are due out later today. We are expecting a steady trading range between 1.0630 and 1.0800 during today’s session. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.3708 | 0.0074 | 1.3650 | 1.3740 |
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Daily chart
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1.3620 | 1.3790 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.3600 | 1.3840 | |||
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Comments The EUR/USD has been trading within a tight range between 1.3620 and 1.3687. The problems associated with Greece's financial situation appear to have been digested by the market, and there now seems to be strong support emerging at 1.3500. So could we now see the pair claw its way back above the 1.4000 mark in the near future? For this to happen, we would need to see substantial improvement on stockmarkets for the greenback to relinquish its role as a safe-haven currency. Eurozone industrial production data will be published this morning. Our expected trading range for today is 1.3600-1.3740.. |
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| USD/JPY | 90.60 | 0.24 | 90.35 | 90.95 |
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Daily chart
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90.00 | 91.35 | |||
| Short-term chart |
89.60 | 92.15 | |||
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Comments The USD/JPY pair has been trading between 90.22 and 90.71 over the past 24 hours and the EUR/JPY between 123.04 and 123.90. As with most of the majors, trading volume has been very thin. Overnight in Japan, industrial output was up 2.7% month-on-month in January, while the capacity utilisation index was up 3.9% from one month earlier. Both figures were better than expected. We’re staying on our course for the USD/JPY with the usual pivot point of 90.00. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.4603 | -0.0006 | 1.4600 | 1.4650 |
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Daily chart
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1.4575 | 1.4690 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.4550 | 1.4705 | |||
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Comments The SNB reiterated what it has been saying for months regarding the Swiss franc, namely that it is ready to intervene on foreign exchange markets if the franc appreciates excessively. The Swiss central bank also raised its forecasts for GDP in 2010 (see above). The pair has put in a low of 1.4603 and a high of 1.4630 in the past 24 hours, and the range between 1.4600 and 1.4650 should hold firm again today. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.5095 | 0.0137 | 1.5030 | 1.5165 |
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Daily chart
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1.5000 | 1.5205 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.4950 | 1.5235 | |||
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Comments The string of negative macroeconomic figures in the UK that has caused the pound to be sold heavily in the past few weeks appears to be priced into the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP exchange rates. The Cable climbed back over the 1.500 mark, advancing from 1.4948 to 1.5062, while the cross fell from 0.9121 to 0.9062. No figures are scheduled for publication in the UK today, but the Michigan index of consumer sentiment in the US will come out this afternoon. Our expected trading range is 1.4950-1.5100. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 82.17 | 0.65 | Daily chart |
| Platinum | 1611.00 | 23.50 | Daily chart |
| Gold | 1112.55 | 3.90 | Daily chart |
| Silver | 17.17 | 0.25 | Daily chart |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 10:00 | Industrial Production | EMU | Jan. | 0.4% | -1.7% |
| 13:30 | Retail Sales | USA | Feb. | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 13:30 | Retail Sales - Ex Auto | USA | Feb. | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| 15:00 | Preliminary Michigan sentiment | USA | March | 73.0 | 73.7 |
