Daily news bulletin covering the foreign exchange market
| 03.09.2010 09:38:20 |
| This market comment is published by our Customer Forex Trading Desk and is not the product of our Financial Research department. As such, these recommendations are not subject to the Swiss Bankers Association's Directives on the Independence of Financial Research. |
 Hot News |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |
| Crude Oil and Precious Metals |
| Economic Data |
| Hot News |  |
| The latest Swiss economic figures were robust, with retail sales up 4.8% in July, GDP grew by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter and 4.8% year-on-year in Q2 2010. The Swedish central bank has raised its interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.75%. As expected, the ECB left its key interest rate on hold at 1.0% yesterday. However, it forecasts that GDP will grow by between 1.4% and 1.8% in 2010 (the previous forecast in June predicted that GDP would grow by between 0.7% and 1.3%). Eurozone GDP rose 1.0% in the second quarter and is up 1.9% from one year ago. Producer prices rose +0.2% between June and July and were up +4.0% from July 2009. The number of Americans filing claims for state unemployment benefits fell from 478,000 (revised) to 472,000. Labour costs are up 1.1% and productivity is down 1.8% in the second quarter. | |
| Short-term Technical Analysis |  |
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| Cross | Spot level | Previous day move (in pips) | Supp. | Res. | Daily target |
| USD/CHF | 1.0122 | -0.0045 | 1.0095 | 1.0160 |
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Daily chart
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1.0065 | 1.0185 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.0025 | 1.0220 | |||
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Comments The dollar traded sideways against the franc yesterday and registered modest fluctuations between 1.0096 and 1.0175, with durable goods orders up 0.4% and factory orders up 0.1% in the US. Switzerland's economy has also proved resilient with the publication of a series of upbeat numbers as well yesterday. We will have to wait a few more hours before reaching the major 1.000 mark, but it should only be a matter of time if US labour figures come out worse than expected in the US this afternoon. Our expected trading range for today is 1.0000-1.0150. |
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| EUR/USD | 1.2820 | 0.0026 | 1.2775 | 1.2855 |
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Daily chart
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1.2745 | 1.2875 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.2725 | 1.2905 | |||
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Comments As expected, the ECB left its key interest rate on hold at 1.0% yesterday and Jean-Claude Trichet reiterated the usual statements that the current low rate is appropriate and the pace of the economic recovery remains uncertain despite recent data showing that inflation is under control. Trading on the EUR/USD has been fairly uneventful over the past 24 hours, with the pair fluctuating in a range between 1.2777 and 1.2848. Our expected trading range for this last session of the week is 1.2700-1.2850. |
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| USD/JPY | 84.23 | 0.02 | 83.90 | 84.70 |
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Daily chart
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83.65 | 84.85 | |||
| Short-term chart |
83.10 | 85.05 | |||
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Comments According to a survey of 60 analysts, the USD/JPY is expected to trade at 85.00 in a month, 89.50 in six months, and 95.00 this time next year. If these targets are to be reached, however, the world economy will have to recover completely with sustainable economic growth and markets back on the rise. The USD/JPY pair has traded between 84.01 and 84.45 in the past 24 hours while the EUR/JPY has been bid between 107.46 and 108.30. Depending on data released in the US later today, we should finish the week between 83.50-85.00 and 107.00-108.50. |
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| EUR/CHF | 1.2978 | -0.0029 | 1.2850 | 1.3060 |
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Daily chart
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1.2805 | 1.3150 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.2700 | 1.3245 | |||
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Comments The situation surrounding the Swiss franc is becoming more complicated following the very strong GDP and retail sails data published yesterday. The numbers show that the Swiss economy is holding up very well despite the run-up in the Swiss currency, which has not affected exports thus far but which could do so over the next two quarters. Investors who sought safety in the franc chose the right currency and we may even see the rate fall to 1.2500 in the near future. Yesterday the cross retreated from 1.3039 to 1.2945, and today we’re calling for a range between 1.2925 and 1.3025 today. |
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| GBP/USD | 1.5410 | -0.0030 | 1.5350 | 1.5460 |
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Daily chart
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1.5320 | 1.5495 | |||
| Short-term chart |
1.5295 | 1.5575 | |||
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Comments The housing sector in the UK is still suffering, much like the US market, with house prices falling 0.9% on a monthly basis in August (up 3.9% from last year). NFP, unemployment and ISM data will be published in the US today. These happen to be some of the most important indicators for reassuring capital markets. The Cable remained wedged in a range between 1.5351 and 1.5448 yesterday and should trade between 1.5300 and 1.5500 today. |
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| Crude Oil and Precious Metals | |
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| Spot | Pips move | ||
| Crude Oil | 74.68 | 0.83 | Daily chart |
| Platinum | 1553.00 | 20.00 | Daily chart |
| Gold | 1250.65 | 4.85 | Daily chart |
| Silver | 19.59 | 0.27 | Daily chart |
| Economic Data | |
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| GMT Time | Economic data | Country | Period | Forecast | Previous |
| 09:15 | CPI M/M | SWI | AUG | 0.10% | -0.70% |
| 09:53 | MARKET SERVICES PMI | GER | AUG | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| 09:58 | MARKET SERVICES PMI | EMU | AUG | 55.6 | 55.6 |
| 10:28 | CIPS/MARKET SERV PMI | UK | AUG | 52.9 | 53.1 |
| 11:00 | RETAIL SALES M/M | EMU | JUL | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 11:00 | RETAIL SALES Y/Y | EMU | JUL | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| 14:30 | NON-FARM PAYROLLS | USA | AUG | -100K | -131K |
| 14:30 | UNEMPLOYMENT RATE M/M | USA | AUG | 9.6% | 9.5% |
| 16:00 | ISM N-MFG PMI | USA | AUG | 53.5 | 54.3 |
